Fall Film Festivals' 2023 Oscars Projections Reset
A Look At How The Above The Line Categories Are Looking For Next Year's Oscars Race Now That We've Had The Major Fall Film Festivals
INTRODUCTION
Consider this my post major Fall Film Festivals' outlook into the eight above-the-line races for the 95th annual Academy Awards which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best films from 2022. If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain movie, director, performance, and/or screenplay may currently be a contender, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, read my piece on the matter over at Ordinary Times.
PS: A lot of the re-arranging of acting contenders by some studios happened while I was working on this so you may see slight variation with this and the Ordinary-Times version of my projections, but its very small stuff that doesn't change who I have leading or on the verge where.
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Babylon
03. The Banshees of Inisherin (New Entry)
04. Women Talking
05. Everything Everywhere All At Once
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. She Said
08. TAR
09. The Whale
10. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”:
11. Avatar: The Way Of Water
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
13. The Woman King
14. Elvis
15. Bardo
16. Triangle Of Sadness
17. Decision To Leave
18. All Quiet On The Western Front
19. Till
20. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody
Keep An Eye Out For:
21. White Noise
22. RRR
23. Amsterdam
24. The Son
25. Living
26. Armageddon Time (Returning Entry)
27. Causeway (New Entry)
28. The Greatest Beer Run Ever
29. Thirteen Lives
30. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Unlikely Contenders Barely Hanging On:
31. Emancipation (Returning Entry)
32. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (Returning Entry)
33. Strange World
34. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
35. The Batman
Off The Board: Cha Cha Real Smooth; Don’t Worry Darling; Holy Spider; Three Thousand Years Of Longing
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Chazelle (Babylon)
02. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
03. Polley (Women Talking)
04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”:
06. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Mendes (Empire Of Light)
08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
09. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
10. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave)
13. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)
14. Luhrmann (Elvis)
15. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection:
01. Fraser (The Whale)
02. Jackman (The Son)
03. Butler (Elvis)
04. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Nighy (Living)
07. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
08. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
09. Driver (White Noise)
10. Bale (Amsterdam)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)
12. Hae-il (Decision To Leave)
13. Kang-ho (Broker)
14. Pope (The Inspection)
15. Sandler (Hustle)
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Robbie (Babylon)
03. Williams (The Fabelmans)
04. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Colman (Empire Of Light)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Davis (The Woman King)
07. Deadwyler (Till)
08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
09. Mara (Women Talking)
10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Lawrence (Causeway)
12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande)
13. de Armas (Blonde)
14. Wei (Decision To Leave)
15. Krieps (Corsage)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Whishaw (Women Talking)
05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
07. Ward (Empire Of Light)
08. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness)
09. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
10. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
12. Strong (Armageddon Time)
13. Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
14. McGrath (The Son)
15. Washington (Amsterdam)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Buckley (Women Talking)
02. Foy (Women Talking)
03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Mulligan (She Said)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Chau (The Whale)
07. Smart (Babylon)
08. Mbedu (The Woman King)
09. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Dern (The Son)
13. Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
14. Union (The Inspection)
15. Thompson (Matilda: The Musical)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Fabelmans
03. Babylon
04. The Banshees of Inisherin
05. Triangle Of Sadness
“On The Bubble”:
06. TAR
07. Empire Of Light
08. Bardo
09. Decision To Leave
10. Amsterdam
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Armageddon Time
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth
13. Nope
14. The Menu
15. Bros
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. She Said
03. The Whale
04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
05. White Noise
“On The Bubble”:
06. The Son
07. The Woman King
08. Till
09. Top Gun: Maverick
10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
12. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
13. All Quiet On The Western Front
14. Elvis
15. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody