Consider this my post major Fall Film Festivals' outlook into the eight above-the-line races for the 95th annual Academy Awards which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best films from 2022. If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain movie, director, performance, and/or screenplay may currently be a contender, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, read my piece on the matter over at Ordinary Times.
PS: A lot of the re-arranging of acting contenders by some studios happened while I was working on this so you may see slight variation with this and the Ordinary-Times version of my projections, but its very small stuff that doesn't change who I have leading or on the verge where.
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Babylon 03. The Banshees of Inisherin (New Entry) 04. Women Talking 05. Everything Everywhere All At Once 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. She Said 08. TAR 09. The Whale 10. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”: 11.Avatar: The Way Of Water 12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 13. The Woman King 14. Elvis 15. Bardo 16. Triangle Of Sadness 17. Decision To Leave 18. All Quiet On The Western Front 19. Till 20. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody
Keep An Eye Out For: 21.White Noise 22. RRR 23. Amsterdam 24. The Son 25. Living 26. Armageddon Time (Returning Entry) 27. Causeway (New Entry) 28. The Greatest Beer Run Ever 29. Thirteen Lives 30. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Unlikely Contenders Barely Hanging On: 31.Emancipation (Returning Entry) 32. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (Returning Entry) 33. Strange World 34. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 35. The Batman
Off The Board: Cha Cha Real Smooth; Don’t Worry Darling; Holy Spider; Three Thousand Years Of Longing
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Chazelle (Babylon) 02. Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 03. Polley (Women Talking) 04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”: 06.McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 07. Mendes (Empire Of Light) 08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) 09. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) 10. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave) 13. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) 14. Luhrmann (Elvis) 15. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection: 01.Fraser (The Whale) 02. Jackman (The Son) 03. Butler (Elvis) 04. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 05. Calva (Babylon)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Gimenez Cacho (Bardo) 12. Hae-il (Decision To Leave) 13. Kang-ho (Broker) 14. Pope (The Inspection) 15. Sandler (Hustle)
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Robbie (Babylon) 03. Williams (The Fabelmans) 04. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 05. Colman (Empire Of Light)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Davis (The Woman King) 07. Deadwyler (Till) 08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) 09. Mara (Women Talking) 10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Lawrence (Causeway) 12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande) 13. de Armas (Blonde) 14. Wei (Decision To Leave) 15. Krieps (Corsage)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 02. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Dano (The Fabelmans) 04. Whishaw (Women Talking) 05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Hirsch (The Fabelmans) 07. Ward (Empire Of Light) 08. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness) 09. Tyree Henry (Causeway) 10. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 12. Strong (Armageddon Time) 13. Hopkins (Armageddon Time) 14. McGrath (The Son) 15. Washington (Amsterdam)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Buckley (Women Talking) 02. Foy (Women Talking) 03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 05. Mulligan (She Said)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Chau (The Whale) 07. Smart (Babylon) 08. Mbedu (The Woman King) 09. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Dern(The Son) 13. Hathaway (Armageddon Time) 14. Union (The Inspection) 15. Thompson (Matilda: The Musical)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Fabelmans 03. Babylon 04. The Banshees of Inisherin 05. Triangle Of Sadness
“On The Bubble”: 06.TAR 07. Empire Of Light 08. Bardo 09. Decision To Leave 10. Amsterdam
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Armageddon Time 12. Cha Cha Real Smooth 13. Nope 14. The Menu 15. Bros
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. She Said 03. The Whale 04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 05. White Noise
“On The Bubble”: 06. The Son 07. The Woman King 08.Till 09. Top Gun: Maverick 10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 12. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 13. All Quiet On The Western Front 14. Elvis 15. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody
