99th Oscars Projections: Mid-Year Update

A Look Half-Way Through The Year At The Best Picture Race Outlook For The 99th Academy Awards

Jul 03, 2026

Introduction

July 4th weekend is kicking off, the summer blockbuster season is in full swing, and everyone and their mother is rolling out “Best Films of the Year (So Far)” lists. Yes, dear reader, we’ve officially hit the midpoint of 2026. And with that half-year mark comes the usual wave of early Oscar forecasting from major outlets, so I figured it’s a good time to update my outlook on the Best Picture race for the 99th Academy Awards.

The board has been trimmed from 50 slots down to 45, as the room for error tightens a tad. On one hand, Project Hail Mary has emerged as the consensus pick among critics and general audiences for best film of the year so far. You’ve also got films like Obsession and The Invite generating the kind of passion that can realistically carry them into the lineup. Then there are titles like Disclosure Day and Michael, which come with some real headwinds, audiences are lukewarm on the former, while critics were largely dismissive of the latter. And then there’s the middle tier with I Swear, Pressure, The Drama, and Tuner, all well-reviewed and reasonably liked by audiences, but not yet showing the level of industry-wide traction that typically translates into a Best Picture slot. Finally, you’ve got the Cannes contingentwith All Of A Sudden, Coward, Father Land, Fjord, Minotaur, and The Black Ball, all still very much in play for a lineup spot.

But the real shape of the race is still to come in the back half of the year. The Odyssey, which I still view as the early default frontrunner to win it all, is finally set to begin screenings for critics in the coming weeks. Warner Brothers will be fielding two major contenders in Digger and Dune: Part Three, with the former potentially putting Tom Cruise in the Oscar conversation and the latter attempting a Return Of The King style run. Searchlight Pictures, looking to rebound after their disastrous 2025, could also land two contenders in Wild Horse Nine and Behemoth!, the former a known quantity and the latter still a question mark in terms of release timing.

Neon will look to extend its streak with Cannes winner Fjord and All Of A Sudden, hoping to keep multiple international feature contenders in play. MUBI also has a strong slate of international titles to push into the conversation. A24, meanwhile, could be sitting on an embarrassment of riches with The Debut, The Invite, and Club Kid all potential players. Focus Features faces a real test in whether Sense And Sensibility can break through as a serious contender, or whether they’ll need to lean on their genre slate like Obsession and Werewulf to stay in the mix. Sony has The Social Reckoning, the follow-up to The Social Network, positioning itself for a major awards push. And Netflix is already making The Black Ball its top priority.

And that’s only a slice of the plausible contenders in play. There are also distributor-less films that could break through as major players such as Cry To Heaven, Elsinore, and Jack Of Spades among them, as well as smaller indie hopefuls like The Rivals Of Amziah King and Josephine having some small buzz.

In the last month-plus since my previous update, not much has fundamentally changed, though the questions heading into the second half of the year remain wide open. Below, you’ll find the 45 films I currently see as having a viable Best Picture path, broken down into five separate tiers. Given this will be the final projections update until I finally see the frontrunner for myself, I will be back with an update before month’s end to try and reflect on how the reception to The Odyssey did to its status as an Oscar player.