98th Oscars Projections: And The Nominees Are...
Attempting To Nail All 24 Categories For The Super Bowl Of Film Award Shows
INTRODUCTION
Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my PERSONAL Oscars Projections for the 2025 awards season.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may be a nominee in certain categories, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sinners; 3. Hamnet; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. Frankenstein; 6. Sentimental Value; 7. Bugonia; 8. Train Dreams; 9. It Was Just An Accident; 10. The Secret Agent
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 11. F1; 12. Weapons; 13. Wicked: For Good; 14. Blue Moon; 15. Nuremberg; 16. Sirat; 17. No Other Choice; 18. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 19. Jay Kelly; 20. Wake Up Dead Man
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners); 3. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet); 4. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme); 5. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein); 7. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident); 8. Kleber Medonca Filho (The Secret Agent); 9. Oliver Laxe (Sirat); 10. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice); 11. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia); 12. Richard Linklater (Blue Moon)
BEST CASTING
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sinners; 3. Hamnet; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. Frankenstein
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Wicked: For Good; 7. Sentimental Value; 8. The Secret Agent; 9. Sirat; 10. Weapons
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another); 3. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners); 4. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon); 5. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams); 7. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia); 8. Russell Crowe (Nuremberg); 9. George Clooney (Jay Kelly); 10. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine); 11. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 12. Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue)
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You); 3. Emma Stone (Bugonia); 4. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another); 5. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue); 7. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good); 8. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament Of Ann Lee); 9. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love); 10. Tessa Thompson (Hedda); 11. Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby); 12. Julia Roberts (After The Hunt)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value); 3. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein); 4. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); 5. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Delroy Lindo (Sinners); 7. Miles Canton (Sinners); 8. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon); 9. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly); 10. Josh O’Connor (Wake Up Dead Man); 11. Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 12. Alexander Skarsgard (Pillion)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Amy Madigan (Weapons); 3. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners); 4. Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme); 5. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value); 7. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value); 8. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme); 9. Emily Watson (Hamnet); 10. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another); 11. Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners); 12. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Marty Supreme; 3. Sentimental Value; 4. It Was Just An Accident; 5. Sorry, Baby
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. The Secret Agent; 7. Weapons; 8. Blue Moon; 9. Jay Kelly; 10. Rental Family; 11. Is This Thing On?; 12. I Swear
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Frankenstein; 4. Bugonia; 5. Train Dreams
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Wake Up Dead Man; 7. Nuremberg; 8. No Other Choice; 9. The Ballad Of Wallis Island; 10. Pillion; 11. Peter Hujar’s Day; 12. 28 Years Later
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. KPop Demon Hunters
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Arco; 3. Little Amelie Or The Character Of The Rain; 4. Zootopia 2; 5. Elio
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. The Bad Guys 2; 7. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle; 8. In Your Dreams; 9. A Magnificent Life; 10. Scarlet; 11. Lost In Starlight; 12. I Am Frankelda
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Snow Bear
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Eiru; 3. Butterfly (Papillon); 4. Forevergreen; 5. Cardboard
Other Longlisted Nominees (In ABC Order): Autokar (Bus); Hurikan; I Died Of Irpin; Playing God; Retirement Card; The Girl Who Cried Pearls; The Night Boots; The Quinta’s Ghost; The Shyness Of Trees; The Three Sisters
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sentimental Value
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. It Was Just An Accident; 3. The Secret Agent; 4. Sirat; 5. No Other Choice
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. The Voice Of Hind Rajab; 7. Left Handed Girl; 8. Kokuho; 9. Sound Of Falling; 10. Belen; 11. Late Shift; 12. The President’s Cake; 13. All That’s Left Of You; 14. Palestine 36; 15. Homebound
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. The Boy With White Skin
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Beyond Silence; 3. Ado; 4. A Friend Of Dorothy; 5. The Pearl Comb
Other Longlisted Nominees (In ABC Order): Amarela; Butcher’s Stain; Butterfly On The Wheel; Dad’s Not Home; Extremist; Jane Austen’s Period Drama; Pantyhose; Rock Paper Scissors; The Singers; Two People Exchanging Saliva
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. The Perfect Neighbor
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Cover-Up; 3. 2000 Meters To Andriivka; 4. Mr Nobody Against Putin; 5. Apocalypse In The Tropics
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. My Undesirable Friends Part 1; 7. The Alabama Solution; 8. Come See Me In The Good Light; 9. Cutting Through Rocks; 10. Coexistence My Ass!; 11. Seeds; 12. Folktales; 13. Yanumi; 14. Holding Liat; 15. Mistress Dispeller
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Armed Only With A Camera
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. All The Empty Rooms; 3. All The Walls Come Down; 4. The Devil Is Busy; 5. Cashing Out
Other Longlisted Nominees (In ABC Order): Bad Hostage; Chasing Time; Children No More: Were And Are Gone; Classroom 4; Heartbeat; Last Days On Lake Trinity; On Healing Hands, Birds Perch; Perfectly A Strangeness; Rovina’s Choice; We Were The Scenery
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. “Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. “I Lied To You” (Sinners); 3. “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams); 4. “The Girl In The Bubble” (Wicked: For Good); 5. “Dear Me” (Diane Warren: Relentless)
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. “Drive” (F1); 7. “Last Time I Seen The Sun” (Sinners); 8. “No Place Like Home” (Wicked: For Good); 9. “Dream As One” (Avatar: Fire And Ash); 10. “Our Love” (The Ballad Of Wallis Island); 11. “Salt Then Sour Than Sweet” (Come See Me In The Good Light); 12. “Dying To Live” (Billy Idol Should Not Be Alive); 13. “As Alive As You Need Me To Be” (Tron: Ares); 14. “Highest 2 Lowest” (Highest 2 Lowest); 15. “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” (Viva Verdi!)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. One Battle After Another; 3. Hamnet; 4. Frankenstein; 5. F1
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Marty Supreme; 7. Bugonia; 8. Wicked: For Good; 9. Nuremberg; 10. Sirat; 11. Hedda; 12. Train Dreams; 13. Jay Kelly; 14. Wake Up Dead Man; 15. A House Of Dynamite; 16. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 17. Tron: Ares; 18. Captain America: Brave New World; 19. Truth & Treason; 20. Diane Warren: Relentless
BEST SOUND
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. F1; 3. One Battle After Another; 4. Frankenstein; 5. Sirat
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning; 7. Wicked: For Good; 8. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 9. Superman; 10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
BEST EDITING
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sinners; 3. Hamnet; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. F1
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Frankenstein; 7. Bugonia; 8. Weapons; 9. Sentimental Value; 10. No Other Choice; 11. A House Of Dynamite; 12. The Perfect Neighbor
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Train Dreams; 3. One Battle After Another; 4. Frankenstein; 5. Marty Supreme
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. F1; 7. Hamnet; 8. Bugonia; 9. Ballad Of A Small Player; 10. Die My Love; 11. Nouvelle Vague; 12. Sentimental Value; 13. Sirat; 14. Sound Of Falling; 15. Wicked: For Good; 16. Song Sung Blue
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Avatar: Fire And Ash
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. F1; 3. Superman; 4. Jurassic World: Rebirth; 5. The Lost Bus
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Sinners; 7. Frankenstein; 8. Wicked: For Good; 9. TRON: Ares; 10. The Electric State
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Frankenstein
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Wicked: For Good; 3. Sinners; 4. Hamnet; 5. Marty Supreme
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 7. One Battle After Another; 8. Bugonia; 9. Hedda; 10. The Testament Of Ann Lee; 11. The Fantastic 4: The First Steps; 12. The Phoenician Scheme
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Frankenstein
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Wicked: For Good; 3. Sinners; 4. Hamnet; 5. Marty Supreme
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. One Battle After Another; 7. Bugonia; 8. Nuremberg; 9. Hedda; 10. The Testament Of Ann Lee; 11. Kiss Of The Spider Woman; 12. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Frankenstein
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Wicked: For Good; 3. Sinners; 4. The Smashing Machine; 5. One Battle After Another
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Marty Supreme; 7. Nuremberg; 8. Kokuho; 9. The Alto Knights; 10. The Ugly Stepsister



























