98th Oscars Projections: Post Fall Festivals Update
Attempting To Nail All 9 Of The "Above The Line" Categories For The Super Bowl Of Film Award Shows
INTRODUCTION
Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my PERSONAL Oscars Projections for the 2025 awards season.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may be a nominee in certain categories, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Sinners; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. Sentimental Value; 6. No Other Choice; 7. It Was Just An Accident; 8. Jay Kelly; 9. Wicked: For Good; 10. Avatar: Fire And Ash
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 11. Frankenstein; 12. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; 13. A House Of Dynamite; 14. Train Dreams; 15. The Secret Agent; 16. Is This Thing On?; 17. The Testament Of Ann Lee; 18. Rental Family; 19. Song Sung Blue; 20. Bugonia
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 21. Nuremberg; 22. F1 The Movie; 23. Weapons; 24. Wake Up Dead Man; 25. Blue Moon; 26. Nouvelle Vague; 27. After The Hunt; 28. Hedda; 29. Christy; 30. Kiss Of The Spider Woman
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet); 3. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme); 4. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice); 5. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value); 7. Ryan Coogler (Sinners); 8. Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly); 9. Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good); 10. James Cameron (Avatar: Fire And Ash)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein); 12. Scott Cooper (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 13. Kathryn Bigelow (A House Of Dynamite); 14. Mona Fastvold (The Testament Of Ann Lee); 15. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia)
BEST CASTING
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sinners; 3. Sentimental Value; 4. Jay Kelly; 5. Wicked: For Good
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Wake Up Dead Man; 7. Hamnet; 8. Marty Supreme; 9. Frankenstein; 10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. A House Of Dynamite; 12. No Other Choice; 13. It Was Just An Accident; 14. Is This Thing On? 15. Rental Family
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme); 3. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 4. George Clooney (Jay Kelly); 5. Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon); 7. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams); 8. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia); 9. Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue); 10. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent); 12. Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice); 13. Brendan Fraser (Rental Family); 14. Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone); 15. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good); 3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value); 4. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another); 5. Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue); 7. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You); 8. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament Of Ann Lee); 9. Sydney Sweeney (Christy); 10. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love); 12. Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby); 13. Julia Roberts (After The Hunt); 14. Tessa Thompson (Hedda); 15. Rebecca Ferguson (A House Of Dynamite)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); 3. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value); 4. Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 5. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another); 7. Stephen Graham (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 8. Delroy Lindo (Sinners); 9. Miles Canton (Sinners); 10. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good); 12. Josh O’Connor (Wake Up Dead Man); 13. Andrew Garfield (After The Hunt); 14. Sean Bean (Amenome); 15. Akira Emoto (Rental Family)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another); 3. Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme); 4. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value); 5. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme); 7. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value); 8. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man); 9. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners); 10. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Jennifer Lopez (Kiss Of The Spider Woman); 12. Nina Hoss (Hedda); 13. Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners); 14. Laura Dern (Jay Kelly); 15. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Marty Supreme; 3. Sentimental Value; 4. Jay Kelly; 5. Is This Thing On?
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. It Was Just An Accident; 7. Rental Family; 8. Blue Moon; 9. Sorry, Baby; 10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Father Mother Sister Brother; 12. Black Bag; 13. A House Of Dynamite; 14. After The Hunt; 15. Weapons
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Wake Up Dead Man; 4. No Other Choice; 5. Wicked: For Good
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Frankenstein; 7. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; 8. Train Dreams; 9. Bugonia; 10. Hedda
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Nouvelle Vague; 12. Highest 2 Lowest; 13. The Roses; 14. Caught Stealing; 15. The Long Walk