98th Oscars Projections: Mid Fall Festivals Update
Attempting To Nail All 9 Of The "Above The Line" Categories For The Super Bowl Of Film Award Shows
INTRODUCTION
Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my PERSONAL Oscars Projections for the 2025 awards season.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may be a nominee in certain categories, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sinners; 3. Hamnet; 4. Sentimental Value; 5. Marty Supreme; 6. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; 7. Jay Kelly; 8. No Other Choice; 9. Wicked: For Good; 10. Avatar: Fire And Ash
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 11. Rental Family; 12. Frankenstein; 13. A House Of Dynamite; 14. Train Dreams; 15. Bugonia; 16. The Smashing Machine; 17. It Was Just An Accident; 18. The Secret Agent; 19. Nouvelle Vague; 20. Wake Up Dead Man
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 21. Weapons; 22. F1 The Movie; 23. Is This Thing On?; 24. The Testament Of Ann Lee; 25. Kiss Of The Spider Woman; 26. After The Hunt; 27. Hedda; 28. Christy; 29. Sorry, Baby; 30. The Voice Of Hind Rajab
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet); 3. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value); 4. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice); 5. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein); 7. Kathryn Bigelow (A House Of Dynamite); 8. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident); 9. Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly); 10. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Scott Cooper (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 12. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia); 13. Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good); 14. Benny Safdie (The Smashing Machine); 15. HIKARI (Rental Family)
BEST CASTING
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sinners; 3. Sentimental Value; 4. Jay Kelly; 5. Wicked: For Good
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Wake Up Dead Man; 7. A House Of Dynamite; 8. Hamnet; 9. Marty Supreme; 10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Frankenstein; 12. The Smashing Machine; 13. Rental Family; 14. No Other Choice; 15. It Was Just An Accident
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme); 3. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 4. Paul Mescal (Hamnet); 5. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone); 7. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine); 8. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia); 9. Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice); 10. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners); 12. Brendan Fraser (Rental Family); 13. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams); 14. Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?); 15. Colin Farrell (Ballad Of A Small Player)
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good); 3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value); 4. Emma Stone (Bugonia); 5. Julia Roberts (After The Hunt)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament Of Ann Lee); 7. Tessa Thompson (Hedda); 8. Sydney Sweeney (Christy); 9. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love); 10. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby); 12. Rebecca Ferguson (A House Of Dynamite); 13. Zoey Deutch (Nouvelle Vague); 14. Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?); 15. June Squibb (Eleanor The Great)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); 3. Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 4. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly); 5. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another); 7. Stephen Graham (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere); 8. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein); 9. Josh O’Connor (Wake Up Dead Man); 10. Miles Canton (Sinners)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Akira Emoto (Rental Family); 12. Andrew Garfield (After The Hunt); 13. Sean Bean (Amenome); 14. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good); 15. Jack O’Connell (Sinners)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value); 3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value); 4. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another); 5. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man); 7. Amy Madigan (Weapons); 8. Jennifer Lopez (Kiss Of The Spider Woman); 9. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme); 10. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another); 12. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another); 13. Laura Dern (Jay Kelly); 14. Nina Hoss (Hedda); 15. Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sentimental Value; 3. Marty Supreme; 4. Jay Kelly; 5. Rental Family
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Is This Thing On?; 7. Sorry, Baby; 8. A House Of Dynamite; 9. It Was Just An Accident; 10. Weapons
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. After The Hunt; 12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; 13. Blue Moon; 14. Father Mother Sister Brother; 15. Roofman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Wake Up Dead Man; 4. No Other Choice; 5. Wicked: For Good
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; 7. Frankenstein; 8. Bugonia; 9. Train Dreams; 10. Nouvelle Vague
Dark Horses With A Slim Path: 11. Hedda; 12. Highest 2 Lowest; 13. The Roses; 14. Caught Stealing; 15. The Long Walk