98th Oscars Projections: Mid-Year Edition

A Mid-Year Look At The Best Picture Race For The 98th Academy Awards

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INTRODUCTION

Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my current PERSONAL Oscars’ Best Picture Projections for the 2025 awards season.

If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film may be a contender, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.

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TIER 1: THE PREDICTED TEN

1. One Battle For Another

2. Sentimental Value

3. Bugonia

4. Hamnet

5. Jay Kelly

6. Deliver Me From Nowhere

7. The Secret Agent

8. Sinners

9. Wicked: For Good

10. Avatar: Fire And Ash

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TIER 2: THE “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS

11. The Rivals Of Amziah King

12. It Was Just An Accident

13. After The Hunt

14. Marty Supreme

15. The Smashing Machine

16. Nouvelle Vague

17. Frankenstein

18. A House Of Dynamite

19. Ella McCay

20. Kiss Of The Spider Woman

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TIER 3: THE DARK HORSES ON THE VERGE OF BEING TAKEN SERIOUS

21. Ann Lee

22. Hedda

23. The Ballad Of A Small Player

24. Highest 2 Lowest

25. F1 The Movie

26. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

27. Rental Family

28. Is This Thing On?

29. No Other Choice

30. Sirat

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TIER 4: THE LONG SHOTS WITH A SLIM PATH

31. Resurrection

32. Sound Of Falling

33. Die My Love

34. Roofman

35. Train Dreams

36. Eleanor The Great

37. Sorry, Baby

38. The Roses

39. Eddington

40. Black Bag

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OFF THE BOARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE

Blue Moon; If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Long Days Journey Into Night; Materialists; Mother Mary; Superman; The Life Of Chuck; The Phoenician Scheme; The Running Man; The Wedding Banquet; Tron: Ares

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