98th Oscars Projections: Post-Cannes Edition
A Post-Cannes Look At The Best Picture Race For The 98th Academy Awards
INTRODUCTION
Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my PERSONAL Oscars’ Best Picture Projections for the 2025 awards season.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film may be a contender, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
TIER 1: THE PREDICTED TEN
1. One Battle For Another
2. Sentimental Value
3. Bugonia
4. Hamnet
5. Jay Kelly
6. Deliver Me From Nowhere
7. The Secret Agent
8. Sinners
9. Wicked: For Good
10. Avatar: Fire And Ash
TIER 2: THE “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. The Rivals Of Amziah King
12. It Was Just An Accident
13. After The Hunt
14. Marty Supreme
15. The Smashing Machine
16. Ella McCay
17. Kiss Of The Spider Woman
18. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein
19. Nouvelle Vague
20. Highest 2 Lowest
TIER 3: THE DARK HORSES ON THE VERGE OF BEING TAKEN SERIOUS
21. Ann Lee
22. Hedda
23. The Ballad Of A Small Player
24. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Political Thriller
25. F1 The Movie
26. Rental Family
27. Is This Thing On?
28. The Roses
29. The Life Of Chuck
30. Die My Love
TIER 4: THE LONG SHOTS WITH A SLIM PATH
31. Sound Of Falling
32. Sirat
33. No Other Choice
34. Resurrection
35. Train Dreams
36. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
37. Blue Moon
38. Eleanor The Great
39. Long Days Journey Into Night
40. Mother Mary
TIER 5: THE LONG SHOTS LOOKING FOR A PATH
41. Sorry, Baby
42. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
43. Materialists
44. Eddington
45. The Phoenician Scheme
46. Black Bag
47. The Wedding Banquet
48. The Running Man
49. Tron: Ares
50. Superman
OFF THE BOARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE
Alpha; Caught Stealing; Mickey 17; Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning; The History Of Sound; The Lost Bus; The Wizard Of Kremlin