98th Oscars Projections: And Here We Go...

A Way-Too-Early Look Into The Best Picture Race For The 98th Academy Awards As The Cannes Film Festival Looms

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INTRODUCTION

Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my PERSONAL Oscars’ Best Picture Projections for the 2025 awards season.

If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film may be a contender, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.

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TIER 1: THE PREDICTED TEN

1. One Battle For Another

2. Bugonia

3. Hamnet

4. Sentimental Value

5. The Life Of Chuck

6. Jay Kelly

7. Deliver Me From Nowhere

8. Sinners

9. Wicked: For Good

10. Avatar: Fire And Ash

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TIER 2: THE “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS

11. The Rivals Of Amziah King

12. After The Hunt

13. Ella McCay

14. Marty Supreme

15. The Smashing Machine

16. Highest 2 Lowest

17. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein

18. Ballad Of A Small Player

19. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Political Thriller

20. F1

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TIER 3: THE DARK HORSES ON THE VERGE OF BEING TAKEN SERIOUS

21. Kiss Of The Spider Woman

22. Die, My Love

23. Ann Lee

24. Hedda

25. Alpha

26. The History Of Sound

27. No Other Choice

28. Eddington

29. Is This Thing On?

30. The Roses

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TIER 4: THE LONG SHOTS WITH A SLIM PATH

31. Long Days Journey Into Night

32. Train Dreams

33. Caught Stealing

34. Blue Moon

35. Eleanor The Great

36. Mother Mary

37. Sorry, Baby

38. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

39. The Lost Bus

40. The Wizard Of The Kremlin

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TIER 5: THE LONG SHOTS LOOKING FOR A PATH

41. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

42. The Phoenician Scheme

43. Black Bag

44. Materialist

45. The Wedding Banquet

46. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning

47. The Running Man

48. Tron: Ares

49. Superman

50. Mickey 17

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OTHERS TO POTENTIALLY KEEP AN EYE ON

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey; Anemone; Bring Her Back; Elio; HIM; Late Fame; Jurassic World: Rebirth; Sound Of Falling; The Fantastic Four: First Steps; Michael; Nouvelle Vague; Omaha; Preparation For The Next Life; Rental Family; Resurrection; Roofman; The Entertainment System Is Down; The Housemaid; The Mastermind; The Secret Agent; The Way Of The Wind; Thunderbolts*; Twinless; Warfare; Weapons

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