98th Oscars Projections: Awards Season Update
Attempting To Nail 21 Categories For The Super Bowl Of Film Award Shows
INTRODUCTION
Good day to you. My name is Luis A. Mendez. I’m a film critic based in Central Florida, and these are my PERSONAL Projections for all the non-shorts Oscars categories the 2025 awards season.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may be a nominee in certain categories, and why I have them ranked where I do, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Sinners; 4. Sentimental Value; 5. It Was Just An Accident; 6. Marty Supreme; 7. Frankenstein; 8. Train Dreams; 9. Bugonia; 10. Wicked: For Good
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 11. The Secret Agent; 12. Sirat; 13. No Other Choice; 14. Jay Kelly; 15. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 16. F1; 17. Blue Moon; 18. Nouvelle Vague; 19. Wake Up Dead Man; 20. The Testament Of Ann Lee
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet); 3. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident); 4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value); 5. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Ryan Coogler (Sinners); 7. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme); 8. Kleber Medonca Filho (The Secret Agent); 9. Oliver Laxe (Sirat); 10. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice)
BEST CASTING
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Sentimental Value; 4. The Secret Agent; 5. Sinners
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Wicked: For Good; 7. Frankenstein; 8. Marty Supreme; 9. Sirat; 10. Weapons
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme); 3. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent); 4. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams); 5. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners); 7. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia); 8. George Clooney (Jay Kelly); 9. Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice); 10. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You); 3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value); 4. Emma Stone (Bugonia); 5. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another); 7. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament Of Ann Lee); 8. Tessa Thompson (Hedda); 9. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue); 10. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); 3. Paul Mescal (Hamnet); 4. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value); 5. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly); 7. Delroy Lindo (Sinners); 8. Miles Canton (Sinners); 9. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon); 10. Josh O’Connor (Wake Up Dead Man)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another); 3. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value); 4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value); 5. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners); 7. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme); 8. Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme); 9. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another); 10. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Sentimental Value; 3. It Was Just An Accident; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. Jay Kelly
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Sorry Baby; 7. The Secret Agent; 8. Blue Moon; 9. Nouvelle Vague; 10. Weapons
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Frankenstein; 4. Train Dreams; 5. Bugonia
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. Wake Up Dead Man; 7. No Other Choice; 8. Hedda; 9. Nuremberg; 10. Peter Hujar’s Day
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. KPop Demon Hunters
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Arco; 3. Little Amelie Or The Character Of The Rain; 4. Zootopia 2; 5. Elio
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. In Your Dreams; 7. Scarlet; 8. A Magnificent Life; 9. The Bad Guys 2; 10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sentimental Value
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. It Was Just An Accident; 3. The Secret Agent; 4. Sirat; 5. No Other Choice
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. The Voice Of Hind Rajab; 7. Belen; 8. Left Handed Girl; 9. Kokuho; 10. Sound Of Falling; 11. The President’s Cake; 12. Palestine 36; 13. All That’s Left Of You; 14. Late Shift; 15. Homebound
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. The Perfect Neighbor
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Cover-Up; 3. 2000 Meters To Andriivka; 4. Mr Nobody Against Putin; 5. Apocalypse In The Tropics
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. My Undesirable Friends Part 1; 7. The Alabama Solution; 8. Come See Me In The Good Light; 9. Coexistence My Ass!; 10. Cutting Through Rocks; 11. Seeds; 12. Folktales; 13. Yanumi; 14. Holding Liat; 15. Mistress Dispeller
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. “I Lied To You” (Sinners)
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. “Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters); 3. “The Girl In The Bubble” (Wicked: For Good); 4. “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams); 5. “Dear Me” (Diane Warren: Relentless)
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. “Last Time I Seen The Sun” (Sinners); 7. “No Place Like Home” (Wicked: For Good); 8. “Dream As One” (Avatar: Fire And Ash); 9. “Drive” (F1); 10. “As Alive As You Need Me To Be” (Tron: Ares); 11. “Highest 2 Lowest” (Highest 2 Lowest); 12. “Our Love” (The Ballad Of Wallis Island); 13. “Salt Then Sour Than Sweet” (Come See Me In The Good Light); 14. “Dying To Live” (Billy Idol Should Not Be Alive); 15. “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” (Viva Verdi!)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. One Battle After Another; 3. Hamnet; 4. Frankenstein; 5. Bugonia
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. F1; 7. Hedda; 8. Marty Supreme; 9. Wicked: For Good; 10. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 11. Sirat; 12. Train Dreams; 13. Jay Kelly; 14. Wake Up Dead Man; 15. A House Of Dynamite; 16. Nuremberg; 17. Tron: Ares; 18. Captain America: Brave New World; 19. Truth & Treason; 20. Diane Warren: Relentless
BEST SOUND
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. One Battle After Another; 3. Frankenstein; 4. F1; 5. Sirat
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Wicked: For Good; 7. Avatar: Fire And Ash; 8. Superman; 9. Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning; 10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
BEST EDITING
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. One Battle After Another
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Hamnet; 3. Sinners; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. F1
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. No Other Choice; 7.Sentimental Value; 8. It Was Just An Accident; 9. Wicked: For Good; 10. A House Of Dynamite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Sinners
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Frankenstein; 3. One Battle After Another; 4. Hamnet; 5. Train Dreams
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. F1; 7. Marty Supreme; 8. Wicked: For Good; 9. Sentimental Value; 10. Bugonia; 11. Sirat; 12. Nouvelle Vague; 13. Sound Of Falling; 14. Die My Love; 15. Ballad Of A Small Player; 16. Song Sung Blue
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Avatar: Fire And Ash
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Frankenstein; 3. Sinners; 4. F1; 5. Superman
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Wicked: For Good; 7. Tron: Ares; 8. The Lost Bus; 9. Jurassic World Rebirth; 10. The Electric State
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Frankenstein
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Wicked: For Good; 3. Sinners; 4. Hamnet; 5. Avatar: Fire And Ash
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. One Battle After Another; 7. Marty Supreme; 8. The Testament Of Ann Lee; 9. Hedda; 10. The Phoenician Scheme
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Frankenstein
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Wicked: For Good; 3. Sinners; 4. Hamnet; 5. Hedda
“On The Bubble” Contenders: 6. One Battle After Another; 7. Marty Supreme; 8. The Testament Of Ann Lee; 9. The Phoenician Scheme; 10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Predicted Frontrunner: 1. Frankenstein
Other Predicted Nominees: 2. Wicked: For Good; 3. Sinners; 4. The Smashing Machine; 5. One Battle After Another
Other Longlisted Nominees: 6. Marty Supreme; 7. Nuremberg; 8. Kokuho; 9. The Alto Knights; 10. The Ugly Stepsister
























