2024 Oscar Projections: Pre-Televised Awards Edition
My Latest Projections For Oscars' Races At The 96th Ceremony
INTRODUCTION
Consider this my pre-televised awards outlook into all the races for the 96th annual Academy Awards, which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best in film from 2023.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may currently be a contender in certain categories, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
16. The Iron Claw (Unchanged Since Last Update)
17. All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
18. Society Of The Snow (+2 Since Last Update)
19. Ferrari (-1 Since Last Update)
20. The Boy And The Heron (-1 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST DIRECTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Celine Song; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (+1 Since Last Update)
07. Greta Gerwig; Barbie (-1 Since Last Update)
08. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. J.A Bayona; Society Of The Snow (New Entry To The Board)
14. Michael Mann; Ferarri (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Hayao Miyazaki; The Boy And The Heron (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
BEST ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw (+4 Since Last Update)
08. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn (+1 Since Last Update)
09. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers (+3 Since Last Update)
10. Adam Driver; Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Teo Yoo; Past Lives (-3 Since Last Update)
12. Matt Damon; Air (-5 Since Last Update)
10. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Joaquin Phoenix; Beau Is Afraid (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Nicolas Cage; Dream Scenario (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Carey Mulligan; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Margot Robbie; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Lee; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Annette Benning; Nyad (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Natalie Portman; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Helen Mirren; Golda (+4 Since Last Update)
12. Alma Pöysti; Fallen Leaves (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin (-2 Since Last Update)
14. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One (-1 Since Last Update)
15. Trace Lysette; Monica (-1 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things (+1 Since Last Update)
03. Ryan Gosling; Barbie (+1 Since Last Update)
04. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-2 Since Last Update)
05. Charles Melton; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. William Dafoe; Poor Things (+1 Since Last Update)
08. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers (-1 Since Last Update)
09. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer (-1 Since Last Update)
12. John Magaro; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Holt McCallany; The Iron Claw (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. America Ferrera; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Viola Davis; Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Jodi Foster; Nyad (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Julianne Moore; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. May December (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Air (-1 Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. The Iron Claw (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Fair Play (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Asteroid City (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Dream Scenario (New Entry To The Board)
14. Rustin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Priscilla (Was In The Wrong Screenplay Category)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Zone Of Interest (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. All Of Us Strangers (-1 Since Last Update)
07. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Blackberry (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Wonka (+2 Since Last Update)
12. The Killer (New Entry To The Board)
13. Ferrari (-3 Since Last Update)
14. Priscilla (Was In The Wrong Screenplay Category)
15. Nyad (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Dumb Money; Next Goal Wins
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
02. The Boy And The Heron
03. Elemental
04. Nimona
05. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Wish
07. Suzume
08. Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget
09. Robot Dreams
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Migration
12. Trolls Band Together
13. Leo
14. The Peasants
15. They Shot The Piano Player
- Off The Board Since Last Update: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Once Upon A Studio
02. Pete
03. War Is Over!
04. Letter To A Pig
05. Eeva
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Ninety-Five Senses
07. Boom
08. Pachyderme
09. Humo
10. A Kind Of Testament
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. 27
12. Koerkoter
13. I’m Hip
14. Wild Summon
15. Our Uniform
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Zone Of Interest
02. Society Of The Snow
03. Perfect Days
04. The Taste Of Things
05. Fallen Leaves
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. 20 Days In Mariupol
07. Four Daughters
08. The Promised Land
09. Totem
10. The Teacher’s Lounge
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Io Capitano
12. Godland
13. The Monk And The Gun
14. Amerikatsi
15. The Mother Of All Lies
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The ABCs Of Book Banning
02. The Last Repair Shop
03. The Barber Of Little Rock
04. Last Song From Kabul
05. Deciding Vote
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Camp Courage
07. Black Girls Play: The Story Of Hand Games
08. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
09. Wings Of Dust
10. Between Earth And Sky
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Island In Between
12. Nai Nai And Wai Po
13. Bear
14. How We Got Free
15. Oasis
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. American Symphony
02. Still: A Michael J. Fox Story
03. 20 Days In Mariupol
04. Beyond Utopia
05. Four Daughters
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Bobi Wine: The People’s President
07. Going To Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
08. Stamped From The Beginning
09. The Eternal Memory
10. A Still Small Voice
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Apolonia, Apolonia
12. To Kill A Tiger
13. 32 Sounds
14. In The Rearview
15. Desperate Souls, Dark City, And The Legend Of Midnight Cowboy
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The ABCs Of Book Banning
02. The Last Repair Shop
03. The Barber Of Little Rock
04. Last Song From Kabul
05. Deciding Vote
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Camp Courage
07. Black Girls Play: The Story Of Hand Games
08. Wings Of Dust
09. Between Earth And Sky
10. Island In Between
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
12. Nai Nai And Wai Po
13. Bear
14. How We Got Free
15. Oasis
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. “What Was I Made For?”; Barbie
02. “I’m Just Ken.” Barbie
03. “Road To Freedom”; Rustin
04. “It Never Went Away”; American Symphony
05. “The Fire Inside”; Flaming Hot
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. “Dance The Night”; Barbie
07. “Keep It Moving” The Color Purple
08. “Superpower (I)” The Color Purple
09. “Quiet Eyes”; Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming”; Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. “Can’t Catch Me Now”; The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds & Snakes
12. “High Life” Flora And Son
13. “Meet In The Middle”; Flora And Son
14. “A Song For My People”; Killers Of The Flower Moon
15. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)”; Asteroid City
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. The Zone Of Interest
05. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Elemental
07. The Boy And The Heron
08. Society Of The Snow
09. American Fiction
10. Barbie
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
12. The Color Purple
13. The Holdovers
14. Saltburn
15. American Symphony
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST SOUND
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Maestro
04. The Zone Of Interest
05. Ferrari
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Barbie
07. The Killer
08. Napoleon
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
09. The Creator
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST EDITING
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. The Holdovers
05. Maestro
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Barbie
07. American Fiction
08. Anatomy Of A Fall
09. The Color Purple
10. Air
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. The Zone Of Interest
12. Society Of The Snow
13. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
14. Past Lives
15. Saltburn
- Off The Board Since Last Update: N/A
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. Maestro
05. The Color Purple
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. The Zone Of Interest
07. Saltburn
08. Barbie
09. The Holdovers
10. Society Of The Snow
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. John Wick: Chapter 4
12. Past Lives
13. Asteroid City
14. Napoleon
15. El Conde
- Off The Board Since Last Update: N/A
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Godzilla Minus One
02. The Creator
03. Poor Things
04. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
05. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Society Of The Snow
07. Napoleon
08. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
09. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
10. Rebel Moon Part 1: A Child Of Fire
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Poor Things
02. Barbie
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. The Color Purple
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Asteroid City
07. The Zone Of Interest
08. Wonka
09. Society Of The Snow
10. Maestro
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Saltburn
12. The Creator
13. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
14. The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes
15. Beau Is Afraid
- Off The Board Since Last Update: N/A
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. The Color Purple
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Maestro
07. Wonka
08. Napoleon
09. Priscilla
10. Saltburn
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Asteroid City
12. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
13. The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes
14. The Little Mermaid
15. Chevalier
- Off The Board Since Last Update: N/A
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Maestro
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Society Of The Snow
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Golda
07. Beau Is Afraid
08. The Last Voyage Of The Demeter
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
09. Ferrari
10. Napoleon
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted