2024 Oscar Projections: CCA, HCA, Globes, AFI, & NBR Chime In
The CCA, HCA, Globes, AFI, & NBR Have All Chimed In And I'm Ready To Keep Tracking All Eight Above-The-Line Oscars Races For The 96th Ceremony
INTRODUCTION
Consider this my Post CCA, HCA, Globes, AFI, & NBR outlook into the eight above-the-line races for the 96th annual Academy Awards, which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best in film from 2023.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may currently be a contender in certain categories, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Maestro (+2 Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. American Fiction (+1 Since Last Update)
08. Past Lives (+1 Since Last Update)
09. Anatomy Of A Fall (+1 Since Last Update)
10. The Color Purple (-5 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (+1 Since Last Update)
13. Air (-1 Since Last Update)
14. May December (+2 Since Last Update)
15. Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
16. The Iron Claw (-2 Since Last Update)
17. All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
18. Ferrari (+4 Since Last Update)
19. The Boy And The Heron (Returning To The Board)
20. Society Of The Snow (New Entry To The Board)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: John Wick: Chapter 4, Napoleon, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, The Promised Land, Wonka
BEST DIRECTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Celine Song; Past Lives (+2 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (+3 Since Last Update)
08. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall (-3 Since Last Update)
09. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest (-1 Since Last Update)
10. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple (-1 Since Last Update)
12. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Sean Durkin; The Iron Claw (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
14. Michael Mann; Ferarri (New Entry To The Board)
15. Hayao Miyazaki; The Boy And The Heron (New Entry To The Board)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Sofia Coppola (Priscilla); Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
BEST ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers (+1 Since Last Update)
04. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction (+2 Since Last Update)
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-3 Since Last Update)
07. Matt Damon; Air (+4 Since Last Update)
08. Teo Yoo; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn (-1 Since Last Update)
10. Adam Driver; Ferrari (+3 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw (-4 Since Last Update)
12. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers (-2 Since Last Update)
13. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon (-1 Since Last Update)
14. Joaquin Phoenix; Beau Is Afraid (New Entry To The Board)
15. Nicolas Cage; Dream Scenario (New Entry To The Board)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Mads Mikkelsen (The Promised Land); Koji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
BEST ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Carey Mulligan; Maestro (+1 Since Last Update)
04. Margot Robbie; Barbie (+4 Since Last Update)
05. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple (-2 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Lee; Past Lives (+1 Since Last Update)
07. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall (-1 Since Last Update)
08. Annette Benning; Nyad (-3 Since Last Update)
09. Natalie Portman; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin (+1 Since Last Update)
12. Alma Pöysti; Fallen Leaves (New Entry To The Board)
13. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One (-2 Since Last Update)
14. Trace Lysette; Monica (+2 Since Last Update)
15. Helen Mirren; Golda (-1 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Emily Blunt (Pain Hustlers)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Ryan Gosling; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Charles Melton; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction (+2 Since Last Update)
07. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers (+2 Since Last Update)
08. William Dafoe; Poor Things (-2 Since Last Update)
09. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple (-2 Since Last Update)
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry (+2 Since Last Update)
12. John Magaro; Past Lives (-1 Since Last Update)
13. Holt McCallany; The Iron Claw (+2 Since Last Update)
14. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers (-2 Since Last Update)
15. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-1 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers (+1 Since Last Update)
03. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer (+1 Since Last Update)
04. America Ferrera; Barbie (+6 Since Last Update)
05. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple (-3 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Viola Davis; Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Jodi Foster; Nyad (-2 Since Last Update)
08. Julianne Moore; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn (+4 Since Last Update)
10. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari (-2 Since Last Update)
12. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon (-4 Since Last Update)
13. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers (+1 Since Last Update)
14. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin (+1 Since Last Update)
15. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-3 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. May December (+3 Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (-1 Since Last Update)
08. Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. The Iron Claw (-2 Since Last Update)
10. Fair Play (+3 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Asteroid City (+3 Since Last Update)
12. Origin (+3 Since Last Update)
13. Priscilla (-2 Since Last Update)
14. Rustin (-2 Since Last Update)
15. Napoleon (-5 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. All Of Us Strangers (+3 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. The Zone Of Interest (-1 Since Last Update)
07. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (+4 Since Last Update)
08. The Color Purple (-2 Since Last Update)
09. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (-2 Since Last Update)
10. Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Blackberry (+1 Since Last Update)
12. Nyad (-4 Since Last Update)
13. Wonka (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Next Goal Wins (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Dumb Money (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None