2024 Oscar Projections: Post-Thanksgiving Temperature Check
2024 Oscar Projections: Post-Thanksgiving Temperature Check
Its Post-Thanksgiving And I'm Ready To Keep Tracking All Eight Above-The-Line Oscars Races For The 96th Ceremony
INTRODUCTION
Consider this my Post-Thanksgiving outlook into the eight above-the-line races for the 96th annual Academy Awards, which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best in film from 2023.
For the Picture race I’ve presented my current predicted 10, 10 “on the bubble” contenders, and 6 longshots that I believe are within striking distance.
Likewise, I’ve presented each non-Picture category with my current predicted 5, 5 “on the bubble” contenders, and 5 longshots that I believe are within striking distance.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may currently be a contender in certain categories, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. American Fiction (+3 Since Last Update)
09. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. The Zone Of Interest (+2 Since Last Update)
12. Air (-1 Since Last Update)
13. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (+1 Since Last Update)
14. The Iron Claw (+4 Since Last Update)
15. Saltburn (-3 Since Last Update)
16. May December (+3 Since Last Update)
17. All Of Us Strangers (+3 Since Last Update)
18. Napoleon (-3 Since Last Update)
19. Priscilla (-3 Since Last Update)
20. Rustin (-3 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
21. Nyad (+1 Since Last Update)
22. Ferrari (+1 Since Last Update)
23. Perfect Days (+2 Since Last Update)
24. The Promised Land (+2 Since Last Update)
25. Wonka (+4 Since Last Update)
26. John Wick: Chapter 4 (+4 Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Asteroid City; The Bikeriders; The Boy And The Heron; Wish
BEST DIRECTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Celine Song; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Sean Durkin; The Iron Claw (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
13. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Ridley Scott; Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Sofia Coppola; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Wim Wenders (Perfect Days)
BEST ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw (+4 Since Last Update)
08. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn (-1 Since Last Update)
09. Teo Yoo; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Matt Damon; Air (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
12. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon (-4 Since Last Update)
13. Adam Driver; Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Mads Mikkelsen; The Promised Land (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Koji Yakusho; Perfect Days (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Austin Butler (The Bikeriders)
BEST ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Carey Mulligan; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Annette Benning; Nyad (+4 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Greta Lee; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Margot Robbie; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Natalie Portman; May December (-4 Since Last Update)
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Emily Blunt; Pain Hustlers (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
14. Helen Mirren; Golda (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Trace Lysette; Monica (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Ryan Gosling; Barbie (+1 Since Last Update)
05. Charles Melton; May December (+1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. William Dafoe; Poor Things (-3 Since Last Update)
07. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. John Magaro; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Holt McCallany; The Iron Claw (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Jacob Elordi (Priscilla)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Jodi Foster; Nyad (+2 Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Viola Davis; Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Julianne Moore; May December (-2 Since Last Update)
08. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. America Ferrera; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. The Iron Claw (+5 Since Last Update)
08. Saltburn (-1 Since Last Update)
09. May December (-1 Since Last Update)
10. Napoleon (-1 Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Priscilla (-1 Since Last Update)
12. Rustin (-1 Since Last Update)
13. Fair Play (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
14. Asteroid City (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: The Bikeriders
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (+1 Since Last Update)
08. All Of Us Strangers (-1 Since Last Update)
09. Nyad (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Blackberry (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Wonka (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Next Goal Wins (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Dumb Money (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: None