2024 Oscar Projections: Post-Halloween Temperature Check
Its Post-Halloween And I'm Ready To Start Keeping Track Of All Eight Above-The-Line Oscars Races For The 96th Ceremony
INTRODUCTION
Consider this my post Halloween outlook into the eight above-the-line races for the 96th annual Academy Awards, which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best in film from 2023.
For the Picture race I’ve presented my current predicted 10, 10 “on the bubble” contenders, and 10 longshots that I believe are within striking distance.
Likewise, I’ve presented each non-Picture category with my current predicted 5, 5 “on the bubble” contenders, and 5 longshots that I believe are within striking distance.
If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may currently be a contender in certain categories, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.
BEST PICTURE
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. American Fiction (+3 Since Last Update)
09. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. Air (+1 Since Last Update)
12. Saltburn (+1 Since Last Update)
13. The Zone Of Interest (+2 Since Last Update)
14. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Napoleon (+1 Since Last Update)
16. Priscilla (+1 Since Last Update)
17. Rustin (-9 Since Last Update)
18. The Iron Claw (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)
19. May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
20. All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
21. The Bikeriders (-3 Since Last Update)
22. Nyad (+4 Since Last Update)
23. Ferrari (+6 Since Last Update)
24. The Boy And The Heron (-2 Since Last Update)
25. Perfect Days (-8 Since Last Update)
26. The Promised Land (-3 Since Last Update)
27. Asteroid City (-2 Since Last Update)
28. Wish (+2 Since Last Update)
29. Wonka (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)
30. John Wick: Chapter 4 (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)
- Off The Board Since Last Update: Bottoms, Dumb Money, Elemental, Hitman, Next Goal Wins, Origin, The Killer, The Taste Of Things
BEST DIRECTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers
05. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie
07. Celine Song; Past Lives
08. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest
09. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
10. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction
12. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn
13. Ridley Scott; Napoleon
14. Sofia Coppola; Priscilla
15. Wim Wenders; Perfect Days
BEST ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer
03. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon
04. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction
07. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn
08. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon
09. Teo Yoo; Past Lives
10. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw
12. Austin Butler; The Bikeriders
13. Adam Driver; Ferrari
14. Mads Mikkelsen; The Promised Land
15. Koji Yakusho; Perfect Days
BEST ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple
04. Carey Mulligan; Maestro
05. Natalie Portman; May December
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall
07. Greta Lee; Past Lives
08. Margot Robbie; Barbie
09. Annette Benning; Nyad
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One
12. Jodie Comer; The Bikeriders
13. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin
14. Helen Mirren; Golda
15. Trace Lysette; Monica
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer
02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things
04. William Dafoe; Poor Things
05. Ryan Gosling; Barbie
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Charles Melton; May December
07. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple
08. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction
09. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. John Magaro; Past Lives
12. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers
13. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry
14. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon
15. Jacob Elordi; Priscilla
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple
02. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple
03. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers
04. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer
05. Julianne Moore; May December
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Viola Davis; Air
07. Jodi Foster; Nyad
08. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon
09. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari
10. American Ferrera; Barbie
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
12. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon
13. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn
14. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers
15. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Holdovers
02. Barbie
03. Past Lives
04. Anatomy Of A Fall
05. Air
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Maestro
07. Saltburn
08. May December
09. Napoleon
10. Priscilla
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Rustin
12. The Iron Claw
13. The Bikeriders
14. Asteroid City
15. Origin
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. American Fiction
05. The Zone Of Interest
- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. The Color Purple
07. All Of Us Strangers
08. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
09. Nyad
10. Ferrari
- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
12. Blackberry
13. Wonka
14. Next Goal Wins
15. Dumb Money