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The 100% Free Newsletter Of The Mendez Movie Report, Where A Latino Film Critic Addicted To The Storytelling Power Of Cinema Jots Down His Thoughts On The Latest Movies, Lists His Favorite Classic Films, And Attempts To Predict The Coming Oscars Ceremony.

2024 Oscar Projections: Post-Halloween Temperature Check

Its Post-Halloween And I'm Ready To Start Keeping Track Of All Eight Above-The-Line Oscars Races For The 96th Ceremony

Nov 1, 2023

INTRODUCTION

Consider this my post Halloween outlook into the eight above-the-line races for the 96th annual Academy Awards, which will be celebrating and awarding their choices for the best in film from 2023.

For the Picture race I’ve presented my current predicted 10, 10 “on the bubble” contenders, and 10 longshots that I believe are within striking distance.

Likewise, I’ve presented each non-Picture category with my current predicted 5, 5 “on the bubble” contenders, and 5 longshots that I believe are within striking distance.

If you want more detailed thoughts on my thinking on why I believe a certain film or performance may currently be a contender in certain categories, and why I have them placed where I do in the running, look out for my much more in-depth piece on the matter that might be over at Ordinary Times by the time this is published.

BEST PICTURE

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)

02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)

03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)

04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)

05. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)

06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)

07. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)

08. American Fiction (+3 Since Last Update)

09. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)

10. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. Air (+1 Since Last Update)

12. Saltburn (+1 Since Last Update)

13. The Zone Of Interest (+2 Since Last Update)

14. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (Unchanged Since Last Update)

15. Napoleon (+1 Since Last Update)

16. Priscilla (+1 Since Last Update)

17. Rustin (-9 Since Last Update)

18. The Iron Claw (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)

19. May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)

20. All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
21. The Bikeriders (-3 Since Last Update)

22. Nyad (+4 Since Last Update)

23. Ferrari (+6 Since Last Update)

24. The Boy And The Heron (-2 Since Last Update)

25. Perfect Days (-8 Since Last Update)

26. The Promised Land (-3 Since Last Update)

27. Asteroid City (-2 Since Last Update)

28. Wish (+2 Since Last Update)

29. Wonka (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)

30. John Wick: Chapter 4 (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)

- Off The Board Since Last Update: Bottoms, Dumb Money, Elemental, Hitman, Next Goal Wins, Origin, The Killer, The Taste Of Things

BEST DIRECTOR

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer

02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon

03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things

04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers

05. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie

07. Celine Song; Past Lives

08. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest

09. Bradley Cooper; Maestro

10. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction

12. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn

13. Ridley Scott; Napoleon

14. Sofia Coppola; Priscilla

15. Wim Wenders; Perfect Days

BEST ACTOR

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro

02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer

03. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon

04. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers

05. Colman Domingo; Rustin

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction

07. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn

08. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon

09. Teo Yoo; Past Lives

10. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw

12. Austin Butler; The Bikeriders

13. Adam Driver; Ferrari

14. Mads Mikkelsen; The Promised Land

15. Koji Yakusho; Perfect Days

BEST ACTRESS

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things

02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon

03. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple

04. Carey Mulligan; Maestro

05. Natalie Portman; May December

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall

07. Greta Lee; Past Lives

08. Margot Robbie; Barbie

09. Annette Benning; Nyad

10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One

12. Jodie Comer; The Bikeriders

13. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin

14. Helen Mirren; Golda

15. Trace Lysette; Monica

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer

02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon

03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things

04. William Dafoe; Poor Things

05. Ryan Gosling; Barbie

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Charles Melton; May December

07. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple

08. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction

09. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers

10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. John Magaro; Past Lives

12. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers

13. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry

14. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon

15. Jacob Elordi; Priscilla

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple

02. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple

03. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers

04. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer

05. Julianne Moore; May December

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Viola Davis; Air

07. Jodi Foster; Nyad

08. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon

09. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari

10. American Ferrera; Barbie

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret

12. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon

13. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn

14. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers

15. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Holdovers

02. Barbie

03. Past Lives

04. Anatomy Of A Fall

05. Air

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Maestro

07. Saltburn

08. May December

09. Napoleon

10. Priscilla

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Rustin

12. The Iron Claw

13. The Bikeriders

14. Asteroid City

15. Origin

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

- TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer

02. Killers Of The Flower Moon

03. Poor Things

04. American Fiction

05. The Zone Of Interest

- TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. The Color Purple

07. All Of Us Strangers

08. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse

09. Nyad

10. Ferrari

- TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret

12. Blackberry

13. Wonka

14. Next Goal Wins

15. Dumb Money