2023 Oscars Projections: 12.20.2022 Update
The Latest In A Weekly Updated Projected Outlook Of The Super Bowl Of Awards Shows
INTRODUCTION
From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 12.20.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Avatar: The Way Of Water
05. Top Gun: Maverick
06. TAR
07. Elvis
08. Women Talking
09. Babylon
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
“On The Bubble”:
11. RRR
12. The Woman King
13. Triangle Of Sadness
Keep An Eye On:
14. She Said
15. Living
16. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Off The Board: Aftersun; Decision To Leave; Till; The Whale
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
04. Field (TAR)
05. Polley (Women Talking)
“On The Bubble”:
06. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Rajamouli (RRR)
08. Luhrmann (Elvis)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Chazelle (Babylon)
10. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
11. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave); Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio); Iñárritu (Bardo); Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Butler (Elvis)
02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Fraser (The Whale)
04. Nighy (Living)
05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Calva (Babylon)
07. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
08. Jackman (The Son)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Pope (The Inspection)
10. Mescal (Aftersun)
11. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: Gimenez Cacho (Bardo); Hae-il (Decision To Leave); Kang-ho (Broker); Sandler (Hustle)
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Williams (The Fabelmans)
04. Robbie (Babylon)
05. Davis (The Woman King)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Deadwyler (Till)
07. Colman (Empire Of Light)
08. Lawrence (Causeway)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)
10. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
11. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: Kazan (She Said); Krieps (Corsage); Mara (Women Talking); Wei (Decision To Leave)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Huy Quan
Current Projection:
01. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Whishaw (Women Talking)
05. Dano (The Fabelmans)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
07. Pitt (Babylon)
08. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
10. Rylance (Bones And All)
11. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: Cheadle (White Noise); Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness); Hopkins (Armageddon Time); Ward (Empire Of Light)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Buckley (Women Talking)
03. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
04. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
05. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Foy (Women Talking)
07. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
08. Mulligan (She Said)
Keep An Eye On:
09. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
10. Chau (The Whale)
11. Palmer (Nope) ← New Entry
Off The Board: Dern (The Son); Hoss (TAR); Mbedu (The Woman King); Smart (Babylon); Union (The Inspection)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. TAR
05. Aftersun
“On The Bubble”:
06. Babylon
07. Triangle Of Sadness
08. The Woman King
Keep An Eye On:
09. Decision To Leave
10. The Menu
11. Nope ← Returning Entry
Off The Board: Armageddon Time; Bardo; Bros; Elvis; Till
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
03. She Said
04. Living
05. White Noise
“On The Bubble”:
06. The Whale
07. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
08. Top Gun: Maverick
Keep An Eye On:
09. Avatar: The Way Of Water
10. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
11. Bones And All
Off The Board: All Quiet On The Western Front; Catherine Called Birdy; The Northman; The Son