From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 12.06.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. Women Talking 04. The Banshees of Inisherin 05. Babylon 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. TAR 08. Elvis 09. She Said 10. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
“On The Bubble”: 11.Avatar: The Way Of Water 12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 13. Triangle Of Sadness 14. Decision To Leave 15. Till 16. The Woman King 17. RRR 18. Bardo 19. Aftersun 20. The Whale
Keep An Eye Out For: 21.Living 22. All Quiet On The Western Front 23. Thirteen Lives 24. Empire Of Light 25. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 02. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Polley (Women Talking) 04. Chazelle (Babylon) 05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”: 06.McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 07. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) 08. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness) 09. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave) 10. Rajamouli (RRR) ← New Entry
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) 12. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) 13. Luhrmann (Elvis) 14. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) 15. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Off The Board: Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Butler (Elvis) 02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Fraser (The Whale) 04. Jackman (The Son) 05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 07. Nighy (Living) 08. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 09. Mescal (Aftersun) 10. Sandler (Hustle)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Hae-il (Decision To Leave) 12. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo) 13. Kang-ho (Broker) 14. Pope (The Inspection) 15. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Williams (The Fabelmans) 03. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Robbie (Babylon) 05. Deadwyler (Till)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Davis (The Woman King) 07. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) 08. Colman (Empire Of Light) 09. Mara (Women Talking) 10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Lawrence (Causeway) 12. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande) 13. Wei (Decision To Leave) 14. Krieps (Corsage) 15. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Huy Quan
Current Projection: 01.Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Whishaw (Women Talking) 04. Dano (The Fabelmans) 05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Tyree Henry (Causeway) 07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 08. Hirsch (The Fabelmans) 09. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick) 10. Rylance (Bones And All)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Redmayne (The Good Nurse) 12. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness) 13. Ward (Empire Of Light) 14. Hopkins (Armageddon Time) 15. Cheadle (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Foy (Women Talking) 02. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Buckley (Women Talking) 04. Mulligan (She Said) 05. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Chau (The Whale) 07. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 08. Smart (Babylon) 09. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 10. Mbedu (The Woman King)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Hoss (TAR) 13. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 14. Union (The Inspection) 15. Dern(The Son)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Fabelmans 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. TAR 05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”: 06.Babylon 07. Triangle Of Sadness 08. Elvis 09. Till ← New Entry (Had Been Misplaced Under Adapted Screenplay) 10. The Woman King ← New Entry (Had Been Misplaced Under Adapted Screenplay)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Aftersun 12. The Menu 13. Bros 14. Bardo 15. Armageddon Time
Off The Board: Cha Cha Real Smooth; Nope
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. She Said 03. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 05. Living
“On The Bubble”: 06. The Whale 07. The Son ← Returning Entry 08.Top Gun: Maverick 09. Avatar: The Way Of Water 10. Bones And All
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Catherine Called Birdy 12. The Northman ← New Entry 13. All Quiet On The Western Front 14. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 15. White Noise
Off The Board: The Woman King; Till (Both Actually Being Competed In Original Screenplay)
