From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 11.29.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. Women Talking 04. The Banshees of Inisherin 05. Babylon 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. TAR 08. She Said 09. The Whale 10. Elvis
“On The Bubble”: 11.Avatar: The Way Of Water 12. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 14. Triangle Of Sadness 15. Decision To Leave 16. Till 17. The Woman King 18. RRR 19. All Quiet On The Western Front 20. Bardo
Keep An Eye Out For: 21.Living 22. Aftersun 23. Empire Of Light 24. Thirteen Lives 25. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 02. Polley (Women Talking) 03. Chazelle (Babylon) 04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”: 06.McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 07. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) 08. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness) 09. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave) 10. Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) 12. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) 13. Iñárritu (Bardo) 14. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) 15. Luhrmann (Elvis) ← Returning Entry
Off The Board: Mendes (Empire Of Light)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser → A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Fraser (The Whale) 02. Butler (Elvis) 03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Jackman (The Son) 05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 07. Nighy (Living) 08. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 09. Mescal (Aftersun) 10. Sandler (Hustle)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Hae-il (Decision To Leave) 12. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo) 13. Kang-ho (Broker) 14. Pope (The Inspection) 15. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Williams (The Fabelmans) 03. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Robbie (Babylon) 05. Deadwyler (Till)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Colman (Empire Of Light) 07. Davis (The Woman King) 08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) 09. Mara (Women Talking) 10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Lawrence (Causeway) 12. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande) 13. Wei (Decision To Leave) 14. Krieps (Corsage) 15. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Dano (The Fabelmans) 04. Whishaw (Women Talking) 05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Tyree Henry (Causeway) 07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 08. Hirsch (The Fabelmans) 09. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick) 10. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Rylance (Bones And All) ← New Entry 12. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness) 13. Ward (Empire Of Light) 14. Hopkins (Armageddon Time) 15. Cheadle (White Noise)
Off The Board: Strong (Armageddon Time)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Foy (Women Talking) 02. Buckley (Women Talking) 03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Mulligan (She Said) 05. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Chau (The Whale) 07. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 08. Smart (Babylon) 09. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 10. Mbedu (The Woman King)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Hoss (TAR) 13. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 14. Union (The Inspection) 15. Dern(The Son)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Fabelmans 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Babylon 05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”: 06.TAR 07. Triangle Of Sadness 08. Elvis 09. The Menu 10. Aftersun
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Bardo 12. Bros 13. Nope 14. Armageddon Time 15. Cha Cha Real Smooth
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. She Said 03. The Whale 04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 05. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
“On The Bubble”: 06. Till 07. The Woman King 08.Living 09. Top Gun: Maverick 10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Bones And All 12. Catherine Called Birdy 13. All Quiet On The Western Front 14. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 15. White Noise
