2023 Oscars Projections: 11.22.2022 Update
The Latest In A Weekly Updated Projected Outlook Of The Super Bowl Of Awards Show
INTRODUCTION
From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 11.22.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Women Talking
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once
04. The Banshees of Inisherin
05. Babylon
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. TAR
08. She Said
09. The Whale
10. Elvis
“On The Bubble”:
11. Avatar: The Way Of Water
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
13. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
14. Till
15. The Woman King
16. All Quiet On The Western Front
17. Decision To Leave
18. Triangle Of Sadness
19. Bardo
20. RRR
Keep An Eye Out For:
21. Living
22. Aftersun ← New Entry
23. Empire Of Light
24. Thirteen Lives
25. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Off The Board: White Noise
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Polley (Women Talking)
03. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
04. Chazelle (Babylon)
05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”:
06. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
08. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
09. Iñárritu (Bardo)
10. Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)
12. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave)
13. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)
14. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
15. Mendes (Empire Of Light)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection:
01. Fraser (The Whale)
02. Butler (Elvis)
03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Jackman (The Son)
05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Nighy (Living)
07. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
08. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
09. Hae-il (Decision To Leave)
10. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Kang-ho (Broker)
12. Pope (The Inspection)
13. Mescal (Aftersun) ← New Entry
14. Sandler (Hustle)
15. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: Bale (Amsterdam)
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Williams (The Fabelmans)
03. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
04. Robbie (Babylon)
05. Deadwyler (Till)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Colman (Empire Of Light)
07. Davis (The Woman King)
08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
09. Mara (Women Talking)
10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Lawrence (Causeway)
12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande)
13. Wei (Decision To Leave)
14. Krieps (Corsage)
15. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Whishaw (Women Talking)
05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
08. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
09. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
10. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Ward (Empire Of Light)
12. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness)
13. Cheadle (White Noise)
14. Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
15. Strong (Armageddon Time)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Buckley (Women Talking)
02. Foy (Women Talking)
03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Mulligan (She Said)
05. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
07. Chau (The Whale)
08. Smart (Babylon)
09. Mbedu (The Woman King)
10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) ← New Entry
12. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
13. Hoss (TAR)
14. Dern (The Son)
15. Union (The Inspection)
Off The Board: Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Fabelmans
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Babylon
05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”:
06. TAR
07. Elvis ← New Entry (Previously Had This Falsely Under Adapted Screenplay)
08. Triangle Of Sadness
09. Bardo
10. The Menu
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Aftersun
12. Armageddon Time
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth
14. Bros
15. Nope
Off The Board: Empire Of Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. She Said
03. The Whale
04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
05. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
“On The Bubble”:
06. White Noise
07. Till
08. The Woman King
09. All Quiet On The Western Front
10. Living
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Top Gun: Maverick
12. Avatar: The Way Of Water
13. Bones And All
14. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
15. Catherine Called Birdy ← New Entry
Off The Board: Elvis (Being Campaigned In Original Screenplay Anyways)