From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 11.15.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. The Banshees of Inisherin 03. Women Talking 04. Everything Everywhere All At Once 05. Babylon 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. TAR 08. She Said 09. The Whale 10. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”: 11.Avatar: The Way Of Water 12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 13. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 14. Elvis 15. Till 16. The Woman King 17. All Quiet On The Western Front 18. Decision To Leave 19. Triangle Of Sadness 20. Bardo
Keep An Eye Out For: 21.RRR 22. Living 23. White Noise 24. Thirteen Lives 25. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 02. Polley (Women Talking) 03. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Chazelle (Babylon) 05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”: 06.McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 07. Mendes (Empire Of Light) 08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) 09. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) 10. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) 12. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) 13. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave) 14. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness) 15. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection: 01.Fraser (The Whale) 02. Butler (Elvis) 03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Jackman (The Son) 05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Nighy (Living) 07. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 08. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 09. Hae-il (Decision To Leave) 10. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Kang-ho (Broker) 12. Pope (The Inspection) 13. Sandler (Hustle) 14. Driver (White Noise) 15. Bale (Amsterdam)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Williams (The Fabelmans) 03. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Robbie (Babylon) 05. Deadwyler (Till)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Colman (Empire Of Light) 07. Davis (The Woman King) 08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) 09. Mara (Women Talking) 10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Lawrence (Causeway) 12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande) 13. Wei (Decision To Leave) 14. Krieps (Corsage) 15. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 02. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Dano (The Fabelmans) 04. Whishaw (Women Talking) 05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Hirsch (The Fabelmans) 07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 08. Tyree Henry (Causeway) 09. Ward (Empire Of Light) 10. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Redmayne (The Good Nurse) 12. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness) 13. Cheadle (White Noise) 14. Hopkins (Armageddon Time) 15. Strong (Armageddon Time)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Buckley (Women Talking) 02. Foy (Women Talking) 03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Mulligan (She Said) 05. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Chau (The Whale) 07. Smart (Babylon) 08. Mbedu (The Woman King) 09. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Hoss (TAR) 13. Dern(The Son) 14. Hathaway (Armageddon Time) 15. Union (The Inspection)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Fabelmans 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Babylon 05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”: 06.TAR 07. Empire Of Light 08. Triangle Of Sadness 09. Bardo 10. Aftersun
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Armageddon Time 12. Cha Cha Real Smooth 13. Bros 14. Nope 15. The Menu
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. She Said 03. The Whale 04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 05. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
“On The Bubble”: 06. White Noise 07. Till 08.The Woman King 09. All Quiet On The Western Front 10. Living ← New Entry
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Top Gun: Maverick 12. Avatar: The Way Of Water 13. Elvis 14. Bones And All 15. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
