2023 Oscars Projections: 11.08.2022 Update
The Latest In A Weekly Updated Projected Outlook Of The Super Bowl Of Awards Show
INTRODUCTION
From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 11.08.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Babylon
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Women Talking
05. Everything Everywhere All At Once
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. TAR
08. She Said
09. The Whale
10. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”:
11. Avatar: The Way Of Water
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
13. Elvis
14. Till
15. The Woman King
16. All Quiet On The Western Front
17. Decision To Leave
18. Triangle Of Sadness
19. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
20. Bardo
Keep An Eye Out For:
21. RRR
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
23. White Noise
24. Living
25. Thirteen Lives
Off The Board: Armageddon Time; I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody; Marcel The Shell With Shoes On; The Batman; The Son
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Chazelle (Babylon)
02. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
03. Polley (Women Talking)
04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”:
06. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Mendes (Empire Of Light)
08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
09. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
10. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)
12. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave)
13. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)
14. Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) ← New Entry
15. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: Luhrmann (Elvis)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection:
01. Fraser (The Whale)
02. Butler (Elvis)
03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Jackman (The Son)
05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Nighy (Living)
07. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
08. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
09. Driver (White Noise)
10. Hae-il (Decision To Leave)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)
12. Bale (Amsterdam)
13. Kang-ho (Broker)
14. Pope (The Inspection)
15. Sandler (Hustle)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Robbie (Babylon)
03. Williams (The Fabelmans)
04. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Deadwyler (Till)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Colman (Empire Of Light)
07. Davis (The Woman King)
08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
09. Mara (Women Talking)
10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Lawrence (Causeway)
12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande)
13. Wei (Decision To Leave)
14. Krieps (Corsage)
15. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Whishaw (Women Talking)
05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
08. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
09. Ward (Empire Of Light)
10. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Cheadle (White Noise)
13. Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
14. Strong (Armageddon Time)
15. Redmayne (The Good Nurse) ← New Entry
Off The Board: McGrath (The Son)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Buckley (Women Talking)
02. Foy (Women Talking)
03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Mulligan (She Said)
05. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Chau (The Whale)
07. Smart (Babylon)
08. Mbedu (The Woman King)
09. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Hoss (TAR) ← New Entry
13. Dern (The Son)
14. Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
15. Union (The Inspection)
Off The Board: Thompson (Matilda: The Musical)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Fabelmans
03. Babylon
04. The Banshees of Inisherin
05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”:
06. TAR
07. Empire Of Light
08. Triangle Of Sadness
09. Bardo
10. Aftersun ← New Entry
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Armageddon Time
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth
13. Bros
14. Nope
15. The Menu
Off The Board: Amsterdam
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. She Said
03. The Whale
04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
05. White Noise
“On The Bubble”:
06. Till
07. The Woman King
08. All Quiet On The Western Front
09. Top Gun: Maverick
10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
12. Elvis
13. The Son
14. Bones And All
15. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
Off The Board: None