2023 Oscars Projections: 11.01.2022 Update
The First In A Weekly Updated Projected Outlook Of The Super Bowl Of Awards Show
INTRODUCTION
From now up until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I will be doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 11.01.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Babylon
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Women Talking
05. Everything Everywhere All At Once
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. TAR
08. She Said
09. The Whale
10. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”:
11. Avatar: The Way Of Water
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
13. The Woman King
14. Elvis
15. Till
16. All Quiet On The Western Front
17. Decision To Leave
18. Triangle Of Sadness
19. Bardo
20. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody
Keep An Eye Out For:
21. RRR
22. White Noise
23. Living
24. The Son
25. Armageddon Time
26. Thirteen Lives
27. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
28. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
29. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
30. The Batman
Off The Board: Amsterdam; Causeway; Emancipation; Strange World; The Greatest Beer Run Ever
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Chazelle (Babylon)
02. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
03. Polley (Women Talking)
04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”:
06. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Mendes (Empire Of Light)
08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
09. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
10. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)
12. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave)
13. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)
14. Luhrmann (Elvis)
15. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection:
01. Fraser (The Whale)
02. Butler (Elvis)
03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Jackman (The Son)
05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Nighy (Living)
07. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
08. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
09. Driver (White Noise)
10. Hae-il (Decision To Leave)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)
12. Bale (Amsterdam)
13. Kang-ho (Broker)
14. Pope (The Inspection)
15. Sandler (Hustle)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Robbie (Babylon)
03. Williams (The Fabelmans)
04. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Colman (Empire Of Light)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Davis (The Woman King)
07. Deadwyler (Till)
08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
09. Mara (Women Talking)
10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Lawrence (Causeway)
12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande)
13. Wei (Decision To Leave)
14. Krieps (Corsage)
15. Goth (Pearl) ← New Entry
Off The Board: de Armas (Blonde)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Whishaw (Women Talking)
05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
08. Ward (Empire Of Light)
09. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
10. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Strong (Armageddon Time)
13. Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
14. Cheadle (White Noise) ← New Entry
15. McGrath (The Son)
Off The Board: Washington (Amsterdam)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Buckley (Women Talking)
02. Foy (Women Talking)
03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Mulligan (She Said)
05. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Chau (The Whale)
07. Smart (Babylon)
08. Mbedu (The Woman King)
09. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Dern (The Son)
13. Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
14. Union (The Inspection)
15. Thompson (Matilda: The Musical)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Fabelmans
03. Babylon
04. The Banshees of Inisherin
05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”:
06. TAR
07. Empire Of Light
08. Triangle Of Sadness
09. Bardo
10. Armageddon Time
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Cha Cha Real Smooth
12. Bros
13. Nope
14. The Menu
15. Amsterdam
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. She Said
03. The Whale
04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
05. White Noise
“On The Bubble”:
06. The Woman King
07. Till
08. All Quiet On The Western Front
09. Top Gun: Maverick
10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
12. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
13. The Son
14. Elvis
15. Bones And All ← New Entry
Off The Board: I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody