From now up until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I will be doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. For now, I am still just covering and tracking the “above-the-line” races. This is for the update of 11.01.2022
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Babylon 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Women Talking 05. Everything Everywhere All At Once 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. TAR 08. She Said 09. The Whale 10. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”: 11.Avatar: The Way Of Water 12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 13. The Woman King 14. Elvis 15. Till 16. All Quiet On The Western Front 17. Decision To Leave 18. Triangle Of Sadness 19. Bardo 20. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody
Keep An Eye Out For: 21.RRR 22. White Noise 23. Living 24. The Son 25. Armageddon Time 26. Thirteen Lives 27. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 28. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 29. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 30. The Batman
Off The Board: Amsterdam; Causeway; Emancipation; Strange World; The Greatest Beer Run Ever
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Chazelle (Babylon) 02. Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 03. Polley (Women Talking) 04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”: 06.McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 07. Mendes (Empire Of Light) 08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) 09. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) 10. Iñárritu (Bardo)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) 12. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave) 13. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness) 14. Luhrmann (Elvis) 15. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser
Current Projection: 01.Fraser (The Whale) 02. Butler (Elvis) 03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Jackman (The Son) 05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Nighy (Living) 07. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 08. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 09. Driver (White Noise) 10. Hae-il (Decision To Leave)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Gimenez Cacho (Bardo) 12. Bale (Amsterdam) 13. Kang-ho (Broker) 14. Pope (The Inspection) 15. Sandler (Hustle)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Robbie (Babylon) 03. Williams (The Fabelmans) 04. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 05. Colman (Empire Of Light)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Davis (The Woman King) 07. Deadwyler (Till) 08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) 09. Mara (Women Talking) 10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Lawrence (Causeway) 12. Thompson (Good Luck Leo Grande) 13. Wei (Decision To Leave) 14. Krieps (Corsage) 15. Goth (Pearl) ← New Entry
Off The Board: de Armas (Blonde)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 02. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Dano (The Fabelmans) 04. Whishaw (Women Talking) 05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Hirsch (The Fabelmans) 07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 08. Ward (Empire Of Light) 09. Tyree Henry (Causeway) 10. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Strong (Armageddon Time) 13. Hopkins (Armageddon Time) 14. Cheadle (White Noise) ← New Entry 15. McGrath (The Son)
Off The Board: Washington (Amsterdam)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Buckley (Women Talking) 02. Foy (Women Talking) 03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Mulligan (She Said) 05. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Chau (The Whale) 07. Smart (Babylon) 08. Mbedu (The Woman King) 09. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 10. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 12. Dern(The Son) 13. Hathaway (Armageddon Time) 14. Union (The Inspection) 15. Thompson (Matilda: The Musical)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Fabelmans 03. Babylon 04. The Banshees of Inisherin 05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”: 06.TAR 07. Empire Of Light 08. Triangle Of Sadness 09. Bardo 10. Armageddon Time
Keep An Eye Out For: 11.Cha Cha Real Smooth 12. Bros 13. Nope 14. The Menu 15. Amsterdam
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. She Said 03. The Whale 04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 05. White Noise
“On The Bubble”: 06. The Woman King 07. Till 08.All Quiet On The Western Front 09. Top Gun: Maverick 10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For: 11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 12. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 13. The Son 14. Elvis 15. Bones And All ← New Entry
