From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. This is for the update of 01.10.2023
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Top Gun: Maverick 05. Elvis 06. TAR 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. Women Talking 09. Babylon 10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
“On The Bubble”: 11. All Quiet On The Western Front 12. Triangle Of Sadness 13. Aftersun ← Returning Entry 14. RRR 15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Keep An Eye On: 16. The Woman King 17. She Said 18. Living ← Returning Entry 19. The Whale ← Returning Entry 20. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio ← Returning Entry
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 02. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Field (TAR) 04. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 05. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Luhrmann (Elvis) 07. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) 08. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) ← Returning Entry
Keep An Eye On: 09. Wells (Aftersun) ← New Entry 10. Polley (Women Talking) 11. Rajamouli (RRR)
Off The Board: Chazelle (Babylon); Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Butler (Elvis) 02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Fraser (The Whale) 04. Nighy (Living) 05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Mescal (Aftersun) 07. Calva (Babylon) 08. Jackman (The Son)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 10. Pope (The Inspection) 11. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Williams (The Fabelmans) 04. Robbie (Babylon) 05. Davis (The Woman King)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Deadwyler (Till) 07. Colman (Empire Of Light) 08. de Armas (Blonde)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) ← Returning Entry 10. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande) 11. Lawrence (Causeway)
Off The Board: Goth (Pearl)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Quan
Current Projection: 01.Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Dano (The Fabelmans) 05. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Pitt (Babylon) 07. Tyree Henry (Causeway) 08. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Hanks (Elvis) ← New Entry 10. Whishaw (Women Talking) 11. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: Rylance (Bones And All)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 02. Buckley (Women Talking) 03. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 05. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 07. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 08. Mulligan (She Said)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Foy (Women Talking) 10. Chau (The Whale) 11. Palmer (Nope)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Banshees of Inisherin 03. The Fabelmans 04. TAR 05. Aftersun
“On The Bubble”: 06.Triangle Of Sadness 07. Decision To Leave 08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Woman King 10. The Menu 11. Nope
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 03. Living 04. She Said 05. The Whale
“On The Bubble”: 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. All Quiet On The Western Front 08.Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye On: 09. White Noise 10. Bones And All 11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Current Rating: Tilts Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Current Projection: 01.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 02. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 03. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish 04. Turning Red 05. Wendell And Wild
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Bad Guys 07. My Father’s Dragon 08. The Sea Beast
Keep An Eye On: 09. Strange World 10. Lightyear 11. Apollo 10 1/2
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse 02. New Moon 03. Save Ralph 04. My Year Of Dicks 05. The Flying Sailor
“On The Bubble”: 06.An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It 07. It’s Nice In Here 08. Ice Merchants
Keep An Eye On: 09. Sierra 10. The Garbage Man 11. Passenger ← New Entry
Off The Board: Black Side
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.All Quiet On The Western Front 02. Decision To Leave 03. Close 04. EO 05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”: 06.Argentina 1985 07. The Quiet Girl 08. Saint Omer
Keep An Eye On: 09. Holy Spider 10. Return To Seoul 11. Last Film Show
Off The Board: None
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Le Pullipe 02. An Irish Goodbye 03. The Red Suitcase 04. Warsha 05. Nakam
“On The Bubble”: 06.Ivalu 07. The Lone Wolf 08. The Treatment ← New Entry
Keep An Eye On: 09. Plastic Killer 10. Almost Home 11. The Right Words
Off The Board: All In Favor
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.All The Beauty And The Bloodshed 02. Fire Of Love 03. All That Breathes 04. Navalny 05. Bad Axe
“On The Bubble”: 06.Moonage Daydream 07. Descendant 08. The Janes
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Territory 10. Retrograde 11. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Off The Board: Last Flight Home
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Flagmakers 02. The Elephant Whisperers 03. 38 At The Garden 04. How Do You Measure A Year? 05. Holding Moses
“On The Bubble”: 06.Nuisance Bear 07. As Far As They Can Run 08. The Martha Mitchell Effect
Keep An Eye On: 09. Shut Up And Paint 10. American Justice On Trial: People V Newton 11. Stranger At The Gate ← New Entry
Off The Board: Halout
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01. “Hold My Hand”;Top Gun: Maverick 02. “Lift Me Up”;Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 03. “Naatu Naatu”;RRR 04. “Ciao Papa”;Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 05. “Applause”;Tell It Like A Woman
“On The Bubble”: 06.“Carolina”;Where The Crawdads Sing 07. “Stand Up”;Till 08. “New Body Roomba”;White Noise
Keep An Eye On: 09. “This Is A Life”;Everything Everywhere All At Once 10. “You Give Me Strength”;Avatar: The Way Of Water 11. “Good Afternoon”;Spirited
Off The Board: None
BEST SCORE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Babylon 02. The Fabelmans 03. Women Talking 04. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Banshees Of Inisherin 07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 08. The Woman King
Keep An Eye On: 09. Avatar: The Way Of Water 10. Everything Everywhere All At Once 11. She Said
Off The Board: Nope
BEST SOUND
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection: 01.Top Gun: Maverick 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. Avatar: The Way Of Water 04. Elvis 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.Babylon 07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 08. The Batman
Keep An Eye On: 09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 10. Moonage Daydream
Off The Board: None
BEST EDITING
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. Elvis 04. The Fabelmans 05. The Banshees Of Inisherin
“On The Bubble”: 06.Babylon 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. All Quiet On The Western Front
Keep An Eye On: 09. TAR 10. Women Talking 11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection: 01.Top Gun: Maverick 02. The Fabelmans 03. Empire Of Light 04. The Batman 05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”: 06.Elvis ← New Entry 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On: 09. All Quiet On The Western Front 10. The Banshees Of Inisherin 11. Everything Everywhere All At Once
Off The Board: TAR
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Current Rating: Tilts Avatar: The Way Of Water
Current Projection: 01.Avatar: The Way Of Water 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. The Batman 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness 07. Nope 08. Thirteen Lives
Keep An Eye On: 09. Jurassic World: Dominion 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore
Off The Board: None
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Babylon 02. Avatar: The Way Of Water 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. The Fabelmans 05. Elvis
“On The Bubble”: 06.All Quiet On The Western Front 07. Everything Everywhere All At Once 08. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Banshees Of Inisherin 10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 11. The Batman
Off The Board: None
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 02. Elvis 03. Babylon 04. The Woman King 05. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Fabelmans 07. Everything Everywhere All At Once 08. Women Talking
Keep An Eye On: 09. Living 10. Corsage 11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Whale 02. Babylon 03. Elvis 04. The Batman 05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“On The Bubble”: 06.All Quiet On The Western Front 07. Crimes Of The Future 08. Amsterdam
Only things I think you’re sleeping on is Elvis popularity in the Industry (12 BAFTA long lists is nothing to sneeze at) and Basset in Supporting Actress
![The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In [Exclusive Interview]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76f987cc-92da-42f0-b34a-0e9b31c509b3_1600x899.jpeg "The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In [Exclusive Interview]")
Only things I think you’re sleeping on is Elvis popularity in the Industry (12 BAFTA long lists is nothing to sneeze at) and Basset in Supporting Actress