The 100% Free Newsletter Of The Mendez Movie Report, Where A Latino Film Critic Addicted To The Storytelling Power Of Cinema Jots Down His Thoughts On The Latest Movies, Lists His Favorite Classic Films, And Attempts To Predict The Coming Oscars Ceremony.
From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. This is for the update of 01.10.2023
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Top Gun: Maverick 05. Elvis 06. TAR 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. Women Talking 09. Babylon 10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
“On The Bubble”: 11. All Quiet On The Western Front 12. Triangle Of Sadness 13. Aftersun ← Returning Entry 14. RRR 15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Keep An Eye On: 16. The Woman King 17. She Said 18. Living ← Returning Entry 19. The Whale ← Returning Entry 20. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio ← Returning Entry
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 02. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Field (TAR) 04. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 05. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
“On The Bubble”: 06.Luhrmann (Elvis) 07. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) 08. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) ← Returning Entry
Keep An Eye On: 09. Wells (Aftersun) ← New Entry 10. Polley (Women Talking) 11. Rajamouli (RRR)
Off The Board: Chazelle (Babylon); Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Butler (Elvis) 02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Fraser (The Whale) 04. Nighy (Living) 05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Mescal (Aftersun) 07. Calva (Babylon) 08. Jackman (The Son)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 10. Pope (The Inspection) 11. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Williams (The Fabelmans) 04. Robbie (Babylon) 05. Davis (The Woman King)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Deadwyler (Till) 07. Colman (Empire Of Light) 08. de Armas (Blonde)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) ← Returning Entry 10. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande) 11. Lawrence (Causeway)
Off The Board: Goth (Pearl)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Quan
Current Projection: 01.Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Dano (The Fabelmans) 05. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Pitt (Babylon) 07. Tyree Henry (Causeway) 08. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Hanks (Elvis) ← New Entry 10. Whishaw (Women Talking) 11. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: Rylance (Bones And All)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 02. Buckley (Women Talking) 03. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 05. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 07. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 08. Mulligan (She Said)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Foy (Women Talking) 10. Chau (The Whale) 11. Palmer (Nope)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Banshees of Inisherin 03. The Fabelmans 04. TAR 05. Aftersun
“On The Bubble”: 06.Triangle Of Sadness 07. Decision To Leave 08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Woman King 10. The Menu 11. Nope
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 03. Living 04. She Said 05. The Whale
“On The Bubble”: 06. Top Gun: Maverick 07. All Quiet On The Western Front 08.Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye On: 09. White Noise 10. Bones And All 11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Current Rating: Tilts Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Current Projection: 01.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 02. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 03. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish 04. Turning Red 05. Wendell And Wild
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Bad Guys 07. My Father’s Dragon 08. The Sea Beast
Keep An Eye On: 09. Strange World 10. Lightyear 11. Apollo 10 1/2
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse 02. New Moon 03. Save Ralph 04. My Year Of Dicks 05. The Flying Sailor
“On The Bubble”: 06.An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It 07. It’s Nice In Here 08. Ice Merchants
Keep An Eye On: 09. Sierra 10. The Garbage Man 11. Passenger ← New Entry
Off The Board: Black Side
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.All Quiet On The Western Front 02. Decision To Leave 03. Close 04. EO 05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”: 06.Argentina 1985 07. The Quiet Girl 08. Saint Omer
Keep An Eye On: 09. Holy Spider 10. Return To Seoul 11. Last Film Show
Off The Board: None
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Le Pullipe 02. An Irish Goodbye 03. The Red Suitcase 04. Warsha 05. Nakam
“On The Bubble”: 06.Ivalu 07. The Lone Wolf 08. The Treatment ← New Entry
Keep An Eye On: 09. Plastic Killer 10. Almost Home 11. The Right Words
Off The Board: All In Favor
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.All The Beauty And The Bloodshed 02. Fire Of Love 03. All That Breathes 04. Navalny 05. Bad Axe
“On The Bubble”: 06.Moonage Daydream 07. Descendant 08. The Janes
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Territory 10. Retrograde 11. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Off The Board: Last Flight Home
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Flagmakers 02. The Elephant Whisperers 03. 38 At The Garden 04. How Do You Measure A Year? 05. Holding Moses
“On The Bubble”: 06.Nuisance Bear 07. As Far As They Can Run 08. The Martha Mitchell Effect
Keep An Eye On: 09. Shut Up And Paint 10. American Justice On Trial: People V Newton 11. Stranger At The Gate ← New Entry
Off The Board: Halout
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01. “Hold My Hand”;Top Gun: Maverick 02. “Lift Me Up”;Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 03. “Naatu Naatu”;RRR 04. “Ciao Papa”;Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 05. “Applause”;Tell It Like A Woman
“On The Bubble”: 06.“Carolina”;Where The Crawdads Sing 07. “Stand Up”;Till 08. “New Body Roomba”;White Noise
Keep An Eye On: 09. “This Is A Life”;Everything Everywhere All At Once 10. “You Give Me Strength”;Avatar: The Way Of Water 11. “Good Afternoon”;Spirited
Off The Board: None
BEST SCORE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Babylon 02. The Fabelmans 03. Women Talking 04. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Banshees Of Inisherin 07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 08. The Woman King
Keep An Eye On: 09. Avatar: The Way Of Water 10. Everything Everywhere All At Once 11. She Said
Off The Board: Nope
BEST SOUND
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection: 01.Top Gun: Maverick 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. Avatar: The Way Of Water 04. Elvis 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.Babylon 07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 08. The Batman
Keep An Eye On: 09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 10. Moonage Daydream
Off The Board: None
BEST EDITING
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. Elvis 04. The Fabelmans 05. The Banshees Of Inisherin
“On The Bubble”: 06.Babylon 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. All Quiet On The Western Front
Keep An Eye On: 09. TAR 10. Women Talking 11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection: 01.Top Gun: Maverick 02. The Fabelmans 03. Empire Of Light 04. The Batman 05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”: 06.Elvis ← New Entry 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On: 09. All Quiet On The Western Front 10. The Banshees Of Inisherin 11. Everything Everywhere All At Once
Off The Board: TAR
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Current Rating: Tilts Avatar: The Way Of Water
Current Projection: 01.Avatar: The Way Of Water 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. The Batman 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness 07. Nope 08. Thirteen Lives
Keep An Eye On: 09. Jurassic World: Dominion 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore
Off The Board: None
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Babylon 02. Avatar: The Way Of Water 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. The Fabelmans 05. Elvis
“On The Bubble”: 06.All Quiet On The Western Front 07. Everything Everywhere All At Once 08. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Banshees Of Inisherin 10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 11. The Batman
Off The Board: None
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 02. Elvis 03. Babylon 04. The Woman King 05. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Fabelmans 07. Everything Everywhere All At Once 08. Women Talking
Keep An Eye On: 09. Living 10. Corsage 11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Whale 02. Babylon 03. Elvis 04. The Batman 05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“On The Bubble”: 06.All Quiet On The Western Front 07. Crimes Of The Future 08. Amsterdam
Only things I think you’re sleeping on is Elvis popularity in the Industry (12 BAFTA long lists is nothing to sneeze at) and Basset in Supporting Actress
![The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In [Exclusive Interview]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76f987cc-92da-42f0-b34a-0e9b31c509b3_1600x899.jpeg "The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In [Exclusive Interview]")
2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update
Only things I think you’re sleeping on is Elvis popularity in the Industry (12 BAFTA long lists is nothing to sneeze at) and Basset in Supporting Actress