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2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update

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The 100% Free Newsletter Of The Mendez Movie Report, Where A Latino Film Critic Addicted To The Storytelling Power Of Cinema Jots Down His Thoughts On The Latest Movies, Lists His Favorite Classic Films, And Attempts To Predict The Coming Oscars Ceremony.
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2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update

The Latest In A Weekly Updated Projected Outlook Of The Super Bowl Of Awards Shows

Luis A. Mendez
Jan 10, 2023
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2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update

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INTRODUCTION

From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. This is for the update of 01.10.2023


BEST PICTURE

The Fabelmans' review: Steven Spielberg spins his own super-director origin  story | CNN

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Top Gun: Maverick
05. Elvis
06. TAR
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water
08. Women Talking
09. Babylon
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

“On The Bubble”:
11. All Quiet On The Western Front
12. Triangle Of Sadness
13. Aftersun ← Returning Entry
14. RRR
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Keep An Eye On:
16. The Woman King
17. She Said
18. Living ← Returning Entry
19. The Whale ← Returning Entry
20. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio ← Returning Entry

Off The Board: None


BEST DIRECTOR

Steven Spielberg Says Pandemic Made Him Write Movie 'The Fabelmans' – The  Hollywood Reporter

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Field (TAR)
04. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)

“On The Bubble”:
06. Luhrmann (Elvis)
07. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
08. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) ← Returning Entry

Keep An Eye On:
09. Wells (Aftersun) ← New Entry
10. Polley (Women Talking)
11. Rajamouli (RRR)

Off The Board: Chazelle (Babylon); Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)


BEST ACTOR

Elvis: How Austin Butler became the King | British GQ

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Butler (Elvis)
02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Fraser (The Whale)
04. Nighy (Living)
05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

“On The Bubble”:
06. Mescal (Aftersun)
07. Calva (Babylon)
08. Jackman (The Son)

Keep An Eye On:
09. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
10. Pope (The Inspection)
11. Driver (White Noise)

Off The Board: None


BEST ACTRESS

Tár' review: Cate Blanchett stars a manipulative classical conductor : NPR

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Williams (The Fabelmans)
04. Robbie (Babylon)
05. Davis (The Woman King)

“On The Bubble”:
06. Deadwyler (Till)
07. Colman (Empire Of Light)
08. de Armas (Blonde)

Keep An Eye On:
09. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) ← Returning Entry
10. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)
11. Lawrence (Causeway)

Off The Board: Goth (Pearl)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Everything Everywhere All At Once' Proves Ke Huy Quan is a Movie Star |  Decider

Current Rating: Tilts Quan

Current Projection:
01. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Dano (The Fabelmans)
05. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

“On The Bubble”:
06. Pitt (Babylon)
07. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
08. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Keep An Eye On:
09. Hanks (Elvis) ← New Entry
10. Whishaw (Women Talking)
11. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)

Off The Board: Rylance (Bones And All)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In  [Exclusive Interview]

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Buckley (Women Talking)
03. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
04. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
05. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

“On The Bubble”:
06. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
07. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
08. Mulligan (She Said)

Keep An Eye On:
09. Foy (Women Talking)
10. Chau (The Whale)
11. Palmer (Nope)

Off The Board: None


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

How 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' Helps to Heal Generational Trauma -  The New York Times

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. TAR
05. Aftersun

“On The Bubble”:
06. Triangle Of Sadness
07. Decision To Leave
08. Babylon

Keep An Eye On:
09. The Woman King
10. The Menu
11. Nope

Off The Board: None


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women Talking review: Religious commune reckons with rape, retribution |  EW.com

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
03. Living
04. She Said
05. The Whale

“On The Bubble”:
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. All Quiet On The Western Front
08. Avatar: The Way Of Water

Keep An Eye On:
09. White Noise
10. Bones And All
11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Off The Board: None


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Pinocchio' review: A reimagined story is beautiful but comes with too many  strings attached | CNN

Current Rating: Tilts Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Current Projection:
01. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
02. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
03. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
04. Turning Red
05. Wendell And Wild

“On The Bubble”:
06. The Bad Guys
07. My Father’s Dragon
08. The Sea Beast

Keep An Eye On:
09. Strange World
10. Lightyear
11. Apollo 10 1/2

Off The Board: None


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Apple Original Films lands animated short film “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox  and the Horse,” based on the beloved award-winning book by Charlie Mackesy  - Apple TV+ Press

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse
02. New Moon
03. Save Ralph
04. My Year Of Dicks
05. The Flying Sailor

“On The Bubble”:
06. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It
07. It’s Nice In Here
08. Ice Merchants

Keep An Eye On:
09. Sierra
10. The Garbage Man
11. Passenger ← New Entry

Off The Board: Black Side


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front' Review: A Visceral German War Film – The  Hollywood Reporter

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. All Quiet On The Western Front
02. Decision To Leave
03. Close
04. EO
05. Bardo

“On The Bubble”:
06. Argentina 1985
07. The Quiet Girl
08. Saint Omer

Keep An Eye On:
09. Holy Spider
10. Return To Seoul
11. Last Film Show

Off The Board: None


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Le Pupille' Short Film, Explained: What Is The Meaning Behind The Title? |  Film Fugitives

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Le Pullipe
02. An Irish Goodbye
03. The Red Suitcase
04. Warsha
05. Nakam

“On The Bubble”:
06. Ivalu
07. The Lone Wolf
08. The Treatment ← New Entry

Keep An Eye On:
09. Plastic Killer
10. Almost Home
11. The Right Words

Off The Board: All In Favor


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed' Review: Nan Goldin's Art and Activism -  The New York Times

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. All The Beauty And The Bloodshed
02. Fire Of Love
03. All That Breathes
04. Navalny
05. Bad Axe

“On The Bubble”:
06. Moonage Daydream
07. Descendant
08. The Janes

Keep An Eye On:
09. The Territory
10. Retrograde
11. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song

Off The Board: Last Flight Home


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Flagmakers' documentary on Oak Creek's Eder Flag could hit Broadway

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. The Flagmakers
02. The Elephant Whisperers
03. 38 At The Garden
04. How Do You Measure A Year?
05. Holding Moses

“On The Bubble”:
06. Nuisance Bear
07. As Far As They Can Run
08. The Martha Mitchell Effect

Keep An Eye On:
09. Shut Up And Paint
10. American Justice On Trial: People V Newton
11. Stranger At The Gate ← New Entry

Off The Board: Halout


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Lady Gaga Unveils New Single From 'Top Gun: Maverick,' 'Hold My Hand' -  Variety

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. “Hold My Hand”; Top Gun: Maverick
02. “Lift Me Up”; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. “Naatu Naatu”; RRR
04. “Ciao Papa”; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
05. “Applause”; Tell It Like A Woman

“On The Bubble”:
06. “Carolina”; Where The Crawdads Sing
07. “Stand Up”; Till
08. “New Body Roomba”; White Noise

Keep An Eye On:
09. “This Is A Life”; Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. “You Give Me Strength”; Avatar: The Way Of Water
11. “Good Afternoon”; Spirited

Off The Board: None


BEST SCORE

Babylon (2023) - la BO • Musique de Justin Hurwitz • Soundtrack • ::  Cinezik.fr

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Babylon
02. The Fabelmans
03. Women Talking
04. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
05. All Quiet On The Western Front

“On The Bubble”:
06. The Banshees Of Inisherin
07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
08. The Woman King

Keep An Eye On:
09. Avatar: The Way Of Water
10. Everything Everywhere All At Once
11. She Said

Off The Board: Nope


BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick' Was Great. Here's What It Needed More Of. - The Ringer

Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick

Current Projection:
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. Avatar: The Way Of Water
04. Elvis
05. All Quiet On The Western Front

“On The Bubble”:
06. Babylon
07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
08. The Batman

Keep An Eye On:
09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. Moonage Daydream

Off The Board: None


BEST EDITING

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE" - Next Best Picture

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Elvis
04. The Fabelmans
05. The Banshees Of Inisherin

“On The Bubble”:
06. Babylon
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water
08. All Quiet On The Western Front

Keep An Eye On:
09. TAR
10. Women Talking
11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Off The Board: None


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick review: Tom Cruise made 2022's first great blockbuster.

Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick

Current Projection:
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. The Fabelmans
03. Empire Of Light
04. The Batman
05. Bardo

“On The Bubble”:
06. Elvis ← New Entry
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water
08. Babylon

Keep An Eye On:
09. All Quiet On The Western Front
10. The Banshees Of Inisherin
11. Everything Everywhere All At Once

Off The Board: TAR


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of Water Reviews Praise Visuals, Spectacle

Current Rating: Tilts Avatar: The Way Of Water

Current Projection:
01. Avatar: The Way Of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. The Batman
05. All Quiet On The Western Front

“On The Bubble”:
06. Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness
07. Nope
08. Thirteen Lives

Keep An Eye On:
09. Jurassic World: Dominion
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore

Off The Board: None


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon' movie review: Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie star in the bacchanal

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Babylon
02. Avatar: The Way Of Water
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. The Fabelmans
05. Elvis

“On The Bubble”:
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. Everything Everywhere All At Once
08. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Keep An Eye On:
09. The Banshees Of Inisherin
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
11. The Batman

Off The Board: None


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Box Office (Domestic): Becomes The 7th Film  Of 2022 To Surpass $300 Million!

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02. Elvis
03. Babylon
04. The Woman King
05. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris

“On The Bubble”:
06. The Fabelmans
07. Everything Everywhere All At Once
08. Women Talking

Keep An Eye On:
09. Living
10. Corsage
11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Off The Board: None


BEST HAIR & MAKEUP

The Whale (2022) - IMDb

Current Rating: Tossup

Current Projection:
01. The Whale
02. Babylon
03. Elvis
04. The Batman
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“On The Bubble”:
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. Crimes Of The Future
08. Amsterdam

Keep An Eye On:
09. Blonde
10. Emancipation

Off The Board: None


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2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update

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2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update

www.mendezmoviereport.com
Alan French
Writes Sunshine State Cineplex
Jan 10

Only things I think you’re sleeping on is Elvis popularity in the Industry (12 BAFTA long lists is nothing to sneeze at) and Basset in Supporting Actress

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