2023 Oscars Projections: 01.10.2023 Update
The Latest In A Weekly Updated Projected Outlook Of The Super Bowl Of Awards Shows
INTRODUCTION
From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. This is for the update of 01.10.2023
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Top Gun: Maverick
05. Elvis
06. TAR
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water
08. Women Talking
09. Babylon
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
“On The Bubble”:
11. All Quiet On The Western Front
12. Triangle Of Sadness
13. Aftersun ← Returning Entry
14. RRR
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Keep An Eye On:
16. The Woman King
17. She Said
18. Living ← Returning Entry
19. The Whale ← Returning Entry
20. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio ← Returning Entry
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Field (TAR)
04. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Luhrmann (Elvis)
07. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
08. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front) ← Returning Entry
Keep An Eye On:
09. Wells (Aftersun) ← New Entry
10. Polley (Women Talking)
11. Rajamouli (RRR)
Off The Board: Chazelle (Babylon); Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Butler (Elvis)
02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Fraser (The Whale)
04. Nighy (Living)
05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Mescal (Aftersun)
07. Calva (Babylon)
08. Jackman (The Son)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
10. Pope (The Inspection)
11. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Williams (The Fabelmans)
04. Robbie (Babylon)
05. Davis (The Woman King)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Deadwyler (Till)
07. Colman (Empire Of Light)
08. de Armas (Blonde)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody) ← Returning Entry
10. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)
11. Lawrence (Causeway)
Off The Board: Goth (Pearl)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Quan
Current Projection:
01. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Dano (The Fabelmans)
05. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Pitt (Babylon)
07. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
08. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Hanks (Elvis) ← New Entry
10. Whishaw (Women Talking)
11. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: Rylance (Bones And All)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Buckley (Women Talking)
03. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
04. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
05. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
07. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
08. Mulligan (She Said)
Keep An Eye On:
09. Foy (Women Talking)
10. Chau (The Whale)
11. Palmer (Nope)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. TAR
05. Aftersun
“On The Bubble”:
06. Triangle Of Sadness
07. Decision To Leave
08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On:
09. The Woman King
10. The Menu
11. Nope
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
03. Living
04. She Said
05. The Whale
“On The Bubble”:
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. All Quiet On The Western Front
08. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye On:
09. White Noise
10. Bones And All
11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Current Rating: Tilts Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Current Projection:
01. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
02. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
03. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
04. Turning Red
05. Wendell And Wild
“On The Bubble”:
06. The Bad Guys
07. My Father’s Dragon
08. The Sea Beast
Keep An Eye On:
09. Strange World
10. Lightyear
11. Apollo 10 1/2
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse
02. New Moon
03. Save Ralph
04. My Year Of Dicks
05. The Flying Sailor
“On The Bubble”:
06. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It
07. It’s Nice In Here
08. Ice Merchants
Keep An Eye On:
09. Sierra
10. The Garbage Man
11. Passenger ← New Entry
Off The Board: Black Side
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. All Quiet On The Western Front
02. Decision To Leave
03. Close
04. EO
05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”:
06. Argentina 1985
07. The Quiet Girl
08. Saint Omer
Keep An Eye On:
09. Holy Spider
10. Return To Seoul
11. Last Film Show
Off The Board: None
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Le Pullipe
02. An Irish Goodbye
03. The Red Suitcase
04. Warsha
05. Nakam
“On The Bubble”:
06. Ivalu
07. The Lone Wolf
08. The Treatment ← New Entry
Keep An Eye On:
09. Plastic Killer
10. Almost Home
11. The Right Words
Off The Board: All In Favor
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. All The Beauty And The Bloodshed
02. Fire Of Love
03. All That Breathes
04. Navalny
05. Bad Axe
“On The Bubble”:
06. Moonage Daydream
07. Descendant
08. The Janes
Keep An Eye On:
09. The Territory
10. Retrograde
11. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Off The Board: Last Flight Home
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Flagmakers
02. The Elephant Whisperers
03. 38 At The Garden
04. How Do You Measure A Year?
05. Holding Moses
“On The Bubble”:
06. Nuisance Bear
07. As Far As They Can Run
08. The Martha Mitchell Effect
Keep An Eye On:
09. Shut Up And Paint
10. American Justice On Trial: People V Newton
11. Stranger At The Gate ← New Entry
Off The Board: Halout
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. “Hold My Hand”; Top Gun: Maverick
02. “Lift Me Up”; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. “Naatu Naatu”; RRR
04. “Ciao Papa”; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
05. “Applause”; Tell It Like A Woman
“On The Bubble”:
06. “Carolina”; Where The Crawdads Sing
07. “Stand Up”; Till
08. “New Body Roomba”; White Noise
Keep An Eye On:
09. “This Is A Life”; Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. “You Give Me Strength”; Avatar: The Way Of Water
11. “Good Afternoon”; Spirited
Off The Board: None
BEST SCORE
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Babylon
02. The Fabelmans
03. Women Talking
04. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”:
06. The Banshees Of Inisherin
07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
08. The Woman King
Keep An Eye On:
09. Avatar: The Way Of Water
10. Everything Everywhere All At Once
11. She Said
Off The Board: Nope
BEST SOUND
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection:
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. Avatar: The Way Of Water
04. Elvis
05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”:
06. Babylon
07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
08. The Batman
Keep An Eye On:
09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. Moonage Daydream
Off The Board: None
BEST EDITING
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Elvis
04. The Fabelmans
05. The Banshees Of Inisherin
“On The Bubble”:
06. Babylon
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water
08. All Quiet On The Western Front
Keep An Eye On:
09. TAR
10. Women Talking
11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection:
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. The Fabelmans
03. Empire Of Light
04. The Batman
05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”:
06. Elvis ← New Entry
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water
08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On:
09. All Quiet On The Western Front
10. The Banshees Of Inisherin
11. Everything Everywhere All At Once
Off The Board: TAR
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Current Rating: Tilts Avatar: The Way Of Water
Current Projection:
01. Avatar: The Way Of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. The Batman
05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”:
06. Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness
07. Nope
08. Thirteen Lives
Keep An Eye On:
09. Jurassic World: Dominion
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore
Off The Board: None
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Babylon
02. Avatar: The Way Of Water
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. The Fabelmans
05. Elvis
“On The Bubble”:
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. Everything Everywhere All At Once
08. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Keep An Eye On:
09. The Banshees Of Inisherin
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
11. The Batman
Off The Board: None
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02. Elvis
03. Babylon
04. The Woman King
05. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
“On The Bubble”:
06. The Fabelmans
07. Everything Everywhere All At Once
08. Women Talking
Keep An Eye On:
09. Living
10. Corsage
11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Current Rating: Tossup
Current Projection:
01. The Whale
02. Babylon
03. Elvis
04. The Batman
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“On The Bubble”:
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. Crimes Of The Future
08. Amsterdam
Keep An Eye On:
09. Blonde
10. Emancipation
Off The Board: None
Only things I think you’re sleeping on is Elvis popularity in the Industry (12 BAFTA long lists is nothing to sneeze at) and Basset in Supporting Actress