From the first day of November until the eve of Oscars’ nominations morning, I am doing a weekly updated look at my personal projections and overall outlook for the coming Academy Awards. This will simply be a list of where I think the battle to get nominated stands in each category I’m currently tracking, with in-depth analysis and explanations of my thinking left for my Ordinary-Times monthly updates. This is for the update of 01.03.2023
BEST PICTURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Fabelmans 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Top Gun: Maverick 05. Avatar: The Way Of Water 06. Elvis 07. TAR 08. Women Talking 09. Babylon 10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
“On The Bubble”: 11. RRR 12. The Woman King 13. Triangle Of Sadness
Keep An Eye On: 14. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 15. All Quiet On The Western Front 16. She Said
Off The Board: None
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 02. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) 04. Field (TAR) 05. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Chazelle (Babylon) 10. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) 11. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTOR
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Butler (Elvis) 02. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Fraser (The Whale) 04. Nighy (Living) 05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Calva (Babylon) 07. Jackman (The Son) 08. Mescal (Aftersun)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Labelle (The Fabelmans) 10. Pope (The Inspection) 11. Driver (White Noise)
Off The Board: None
BEST ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Blanchett (TAR) 02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 03. Williams (The Fabelmans) 04. Robbie (Babylon) 05. Davis (The Woman King)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Deadwyler (Till) 07. Colman (Empire Of Light) 08. de Armas (Blonde) ← Returning Entry
Keep An Eye On: 09. Lawrence (Causeway) 10. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande) 11. Goth (Pearl)
Off The Board: Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Rating: Tilts Huy Quan
Current Projection: 01.Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 04. Dano (The Fabelmans) 05. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Pitt (Babylon) 07. Tyree Henry (Causeway) 08. Whishaw (Women Talking)
Keep An Eye On: 09. Redmayne (The Good Nurse) 10. Rylance (Bones And All) 11. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
Off The Board: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) 02. Buckley (Women Talking) 03. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 04. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 05. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“On The Bubble”: 06. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 07. Foy (Women Talking) 08. Mulligan (She Said)
Keep An Eye On: 09. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) 10. Chau (The Whale) 11. Palmer (Nope)
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Banshees of Inisherin 03. The Fabelmans 04. TAR 05. Aftersun
“On The Bubble”: 06.Triangle Of Sadness 07. Decision To Leave 08. Babylon
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Woman King 10. The Menu 11. Nope
Off The Board: None
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Women Talking 02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 03. She Said 04. Living 05. The Whale
“On The Bubble”: 06. White Noise 07. Top Gun: Maverick 08.Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye On: 09. All Quiet On The Western Front 10. Bones And All 11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Off The Board: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Current Rating: Tilts Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Current Projection: 01.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 02. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On 03. Turning Red 04. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish 05. Apollo 10 1/2
“On The Bubble”: 06.Wendell And Wild 07. The Bad Guys 08. My Father’s Dragon
Keep An Eye On: 09. Strange World 10. Lightyear 11. The Sea Beast
Off The Board: None
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse 02. New Moon 03. Save Ralph 04. My Year Of Dicks 05. The Flying Sailor
“On The Bubble”: 06.It’s Nice In Here 07. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It 08. The Garbage Man
Keep An Eye On: 09. Ice Merchants 10. Sierra 11. Black Side
Off The Board: None
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.All Quiet On The Western Front 02. Decision To Leave 03. Close 04. EO 05. Bardo
“On The Bubble”: 06.Argentina 1985 07. Saint Omer 08. The Quiet Girl
Keep An Eye On: 09. Holy Spider 10. Return To Seoul 11. Last Film Show
Off The Board: None
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Le Pullipe 02. An Irish Goodbye 03. The Red Suitcase 04. Warsha 05. Nakam
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Lone Wolf 07. Ivalu 08. Plastic Killer
Keep An Eye On: 09. Almost Home 10. The Right Words 11. All In Favor
Off The Board: None
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.All The Beauty And The Bloodshed 02. Fire Of Love 03. All That Breathes 04. Navalny 05. Bad Axe
“On The Bubble”: 06.Descendant 07. The Territory 08. The Janes
Keep An Eye On: 09. Moonage Daydream 10. Retrograde 11. Last Flight Home
Off The Board: None
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Flagmakers 02. The Elephant Whisperers 03. 38 At The Garden 04. How Do You Measure A Year? 05. Holding Moses
“On The Bubble”: 06.Nuisance Bear 07. As Far As They Can Run 08. The Martha Mitchell Effect
Keep An Eye On: 09. Halout 10. Shut Up And Paint 11. American Justice On Trial: People V Newton
Off The Board: None
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01. “Hold My Hand”;Top Gun: Maverick 02. “Lift Me Up”;Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 03. “Naatu Naatu”;RRR 04. “Ciao Papa”;Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 05. “Applause”;Tell It Like A Woman
“On The Bubble”: 06.“Carolina”;Where The Crawdads Sing 07. “Stand Up”;Till 08. “New Body Roomba”;White Noise
Keep An Eye On: 09. “This Is A Life”;Everything Everywhere All At Once 10. “You Give Me Strength”;Avatar: The Way Of Water 11. “Good Afternoon”;Spirited
Off The Board: None
BEST SCORE
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Babylon 02. The Fabelmans 03. Women Talking 04. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 05. All Quiet On The Western Front
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Banshees Of Inisherin 07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 08. The Woman King
Keep An Eye On: 09. Avatar: The Way Of Water 10. Everything Everywhere All At Once 11. Nope
Off The Board: None
BEST SOUND
Current Rating: Tilts Top Gun: Maverick
Current Projection: 01.Top Gun: Maverick 02. Everything Everywhere All At Once 03. Avatar: The Way Of Water 04. Elvis 05. Babylon
“On The Bubble”: 06.All Quiet On The Western Front 07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 08. The Batman
Keep An Eye On: 09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 10. Moonage Daydream
Off The Board: None
BEST EDITING
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. Elvis 04. The Fabelmans 05. The Banshees Of Inisherin
“On The Bubble”: 06.Babylon 07. Avatar: The Way Of Water 08. Women Talking
Keep An Eye On: 09. TAR 10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 11. All Quiet On The Western Front
Off The Board: None
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Top Gun: Maverick 02. Babylon 03. Avatar: The Way Of Water 04. The Fabelmans 05. Empire Of Light
“On The Bubble”: 06.All Quiet On The Western Front 07. The Banshees Of Inisherin 08. Everything Everywhere All At Once
Keep An Eye On: 09. TAR 10. The Batman 11. Bardo
Off The Board: None
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Current Rating: Tilts Avatar: The Way Of Water
Current Projection: 01.Avatar: The Way Of Water 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. The Batman 05. Nope
“On The Bubble”: 06.Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness 07. All Quiet On The Western Front 08. Thirteen Lives
Keep An Eye On: 09. Jurassic World: Dominion 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore
Off The Board: None
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Babylon 02. Avatar: The Way Of Water 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. The Fabelmans 05. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
“On The Bubble”: 06.Elvis 07. Everything Everywhere All At Once 08. All Quiet On The Western Front
Keep An Eye On: 09. The Banshees Of Inisherin 10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 11. The Batman
Off The Board: None
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 02. Elvis 03. Babylon 04. The Woman King 05. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
“On The Bubble”: 06.The Fabelmans 07. Everything Everywhere All At Once 08. Living
Keep An Eye On: 09. Corsage 10. Women Talking 11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Off The Board: None
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Projection: 01.The Whale 02. Babylon 03. Elvis 04. The Batman 05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“On The Bubble”: 06.Blonde 07. All Quiet On The Western Front 08. Crimes Of The Future
![The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In [Exclusive Interview]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76f987cc-92da-42f0-b34a-0e9b31c509b3_1600x899.jpeg "The Banshees Of Inisherin Star Kerry Condon Stands Out While Blending In [Exclusive Interview]")
